Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq wobble as Trump tariffs stalk markets

Yahoo Finance’s Alexandra Canal reports:

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Yahoo Finance’s Laura Bratton reports:

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A string of weaker-than-expected economic data has led to sliding projections for first quarter economic growth.

On Monday, two separate releases showed activity in the manufacturing sector slowed in February while construction spending fell more than anticipated in January. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool, which uses already released data in the quarter to project the pace of US economic growth, now projects GDP fell by 2.8% in the first quarter, down from Friday’s projection of a 1.5% decline.

Economists at Oxford Economics also slashed their GDP estimate following this morning’s releases.

“The January figures of private construction have lowered our estimate of Q1 GDP to 0.6% annualized, down from 1% at the end of last week and well below the 2.5% penciled into the February baseline forecast,” Oxford Economics lead US economist Bernard Yaros wrote in a note on Monday.

Tesla stock (TSLA) rose 2% on Monday as Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said he sees shares of the EV giant rising to $430 as it diversifies into artificial intelligence and robotics.

Shares of the EV maker plummeted almost 28% in February as the company’s EV sales slumped, leaving investors to wonder whether CEO Elon Musk’s involvement in politics was turning off buyers.

Jonas predicted Tesla’s full-year 2025 deliveries could decline year over year, “creating an attractive entry point” for investors. The analyst reinstated Tesla as a top pick for the auto sector, with a price target of $430 (a roughly 50% increase from Friday’s close of $292.98) and a bull case of $800.

“Tesla’s softer auto deliveries are emblematic of a company in the transition from an automotive ‘pure play’ to a highly diversified play on AI and robotics,” he added.

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Crypto stocks rallied in early trading on Monday after President Donald Trump made new promises about a US crypto reserve planned by his administration.

In a post on Truth Social on Sunday, Trump identified five cryptocurrencies that the reserve will draw on — bitcoin, ether (ETH-USD), XRP (XRP-USD), solana (SOL-USD), and cardano (ADA-USD). In January, Trump issued an executive order to create a national crypto “stockpile” but did not name the digital assets included.

Shares of Strategy (MSTR) — the largest corporate holder of bitcoin formerly known as MicroStrategy — rose as much as 12% on Monday morning, but was last trading about 3% higher. Meanwhile, crypto miners Riot Platforms (RIOT) and MARA Holdings (MARA), the latter formerly known as Marathon Digital, both added around 3%. Trading platform provider Coinbase (COIN) climbed 1.5%.

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Yahoo Finance’s Ben Werschkul reports:

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Data out Monday showed activity in the manufacturing grew less than expected in February while costs increased.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI registered a reading of 50.3 in February, down from January’s 50.9 reading and below the 50.7 economists had expected. Readings above 50 for this index indicate an expansion in activity, while readings below 50 indicate a contraction.

The prices paid index surged to 62.4, up from 54.9 the month prior, reflecting companies’ continuing increase in costs.

“Demand eased, production stabilized, and destaffing continued as panelists’ companies experience the first operational shock of the new administration’s tariff policy,” Institute for Supply Management Chair Timothy Fiore wrote in the release. “Prices growth accelerated due to tariffs, causing new order placement backlogs, supplier delivery stoppages and manufacturing inventory impacts. Although tariffs do not go into force until mid-March, spot commodity prices have already risen about 20 percent.”

Another reading on manufacturing activity out Monday also raised concern about President Trump’s policies. The final reading of S&P Global’s manufacturing PMI hit 52.7 in February, above 51.2 in January and its highest level since June 2022.

Despite the upbeat index reading for February, S&P Global Market Intelligence chief business economist Chris Williamson noted that respondents’ optimism for the year ahead is waning.

“Business optimism about the year ahead has consequently fallen compared to the buoyant mood evident in January, with February seeing an increase in the number of companies citing concerns over tariffs and other policies introduced by the new Trump administration,” Williamson said in the release.

Stocks opened higher on Monday as investors braced for President Trump’s targeted tariffs to come into force soon. The market will get key economic insight from Friday’s release of the monthly jobs report and from quarterly results from key retailers.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) climbed 0.5%. while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose about 0.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was up 0.3%.

Investors expect tariffs on Mexico and Canada will be implemented on Tuesday, along with a doubling of levies on imports from China.

Wall Street will be closely watching the February jobs report due Friday. On the earnings front, results from Target (TGT), Costco (COST), and Kroger (KR) will offer more details about the state of the consumer.