Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 18 pts; key levels to watch for Nifty & Nifty Bank

Indian equity benchmarks are likely to open little changed on Friday, but the sentiment will be one of caution as tariff worries resurfaced after US President Donald Trump announced a 100 per cent levy on branded drugs and 25 per cent on heavy-duty trucks. Traders remain cautious over consistent FIIs outflows.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 17.70 points, or 0.07 per cent, down at 24,950, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Friday. Shares in Asia slid on Friday as traders pared bets of sharp US rate cuts. KOSPI was tanked more than 2 per cent, while Hang Seng was shed half a per cent. Nikkei was down marginally at open.

“We expect markets to remain under pressure in the near term, tracking global headwinds, macroeconomic data releases, and developments around the India–US trade talks. Concerns over economic growth persist amid the impact of rising global commodity prices, weakening rupee and US tariffs, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

The dollar held on to steep gains on Friday after better-than-forecast US data dampened expectations for further easing by the Federal Reserve this year. The dollar index was steady at 98.473, after it climbed 0.6 per cent in the previous session after figures on US economic growth, unemployment claims, durable goods, and wholesale inventories all beat expectations.

In commodities, oil prices edged higher on Friday and were on track to rise at their steepest rate since early June. Brent crude futures were up 0.33 per cent to $69.65 a barrel, while US crude rose 0.46 per cent to $65.28 per barrel. Spot gold fell 0.3 per cent to $3,737.71 an ounce.

US stocks ended moderately lower on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 173.96 points, or 0.38 per cent, to 45,947.32, the S&P 500 shed 33.25 points, or 0.50 per cent, to 6,604.72 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 113.16 points, or 0.50 per cent, to 22,384.70.

In the absence of fresh triggers, persistent underperformance in key sectors, coupled with continued FII outflows, is weighing on overall sentiment, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. “Oversold conditions in select heavyweights may trigger a rebound. We advise traders to keep a check on positions and await greater clarity before taking aggressive bets,” he said.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 4,995.42 crore on Thursday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 5,103.01 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty50 outlook
Nifty breached the crucial support level of 25,000, which is now expected to act as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators, particularly the MACD, have signaled a fresh sell crossover on the daily chart, said Nilesh Jain, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at Centrum Broking.

“With the monthly F&O expiry approaching next week, a short-covering rally is possible if Nifty manages to reclaim the 25,000 mark. On the downside, the immediate support is at the 50-day moving average 24,876, and a break below this level could lead the index further down towards the 24,600 zone,” he said.

On the technical front, Nifty50 breached 25,000 decisively and closed well below, signaling increased downside bias with resistance now seen around 25,000–25,050. and support seen around 24,700-24,750 respectively, said Amruta Shinde, Technical & Derivative Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.
 

Nifty Bank outlook
“We expect the index to continue consolidating within the 54,700–56,000 range in the near term. Immediate support is seen at 54,700–54,900, which aligns with last week’s low and the 20-day EMA. A more significant support level is placed near 54,000, representing a key retracement level of the recent rally,” said Bajaj Broking.

“Our broader view remains positive, and we believe the current consolidation phase offers a buying opportunity within the ongoing uptrend. On the upside, the index faces initial resistance near the 56,000 mark. A decisive breakout above this level could pave the way for a fresh uptrend, potentially targeting the 57,000 level in the coming weeks,” it added.

A falling RSI below 50 often reflects a shift in sentiment from bullish to neutral or bearish for Nifty Bank, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. “Going ahead, the zone of 54,500-54,400 will act as crucial support for the index. While, on the upside, the zone of 55300-55400 will act as an important hurdle,” it said.