Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 37 pts; key levels to watch for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian benchmark indices are set to open higher on Thursday amid the rising caution in global stocks. The rising geopolitical tensions in the middle east and fragile tariff truce between the US and China may dent sentiments at Dalal Street. Inflation data in the US was better than expected but import tariffs may push it higher in the coming months.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 37.30 points, or 0.15 per cent, higher at 25,249, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Thursday. Asian stocks were mixed in the early trade on Thursday. Nikkei dropped 0.75 per cent, while Hang Seng fell 0.35 per cent. However, KOSPI was up half a per cent in the early trade.

Market participants will closely track key economic data points, with US CPI, followed by the UK GDP print and India’s CPI inflation reading on Thursday, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. “Positive developments on the US-China trade front and the India-EU FTA could also influence sentiment and set the tone for market direction,” he said.

US stocks settled mostly lower as investors were spooked by Middle East tensions. The S&P 500 declined 0.27 per cent to end the session at 6,022.24 points. The Nasdaq declined 0.50 per cent to 19,615.88 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended essentially unchanged at 42,865.77 points.

The dollar slid on Thursday on further signs that US President Donald Trump may adopt a softer stance in tariff negotiations and heightened expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar fell to its weakest since April 22 at 98.327. Rate sensitive Bitcoin dropped more than a per cent to hover around $108,575.

Oil prices edged higher on Thursday to their highest in more than two months, amid escalating tensions with Iran that could disrupt supply. Brent crude futures rose 15 cents, 0.2 per cent, to $69.92 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude 22 cents, 0.3 per cent, to $68.37. In the bullion market, gold got a boost from safe-haven flows, rose 1.5 per cent to $3,372.85 per ounce.

The ongoing consolidation may continue in absence of fresh triggers. Participants are now closely watching the upcoming macroeconomic data, particularly CPI inflation and updates on trade deals, for further cues, said  Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking.. “We recommend maintaining a stock-specific approach and focusing on prudent trade management.”

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 446.31 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,584.87 crore on a net-net basis.

Monsoons have taken a pause in the past 10 days post early arrival which has been triggered by creation of low-pressure areas, said Amnish Aggarwal, Research Analyst at PL Capital. “Steady progress of monsoons and agricultural output will be key to inflation which could have bearing on further interest rate cuts and overall consumption demand in the economy,” he said.
 

Nifty & Sensex outlook
A small green candle was formed on the daily chart with a long upper shadow. This market action indicates a range bound action in the market at the highs. After breaking above the broader high low range of 24,500-25,000 levels recently, the market has failed to regain upside momentum post breakout, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

“The near-term uptrend of Nifty remains intact and the market is currently facing stiff resistance around 25,200 levels. A sustainable move only above 25,200 is likely to pull Nifty towards another hurdle of 25,600 in a quick period of time. Immediate support is placed at 25,000 levels,” he said.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities believes that as long as the market trades within the 25,000/82,000 to 25,200/82,700 range, this range-bound behavior is likely to continue. A successful breakout above 25,200/82,700 could push the market up to the 25,350–25,400/83,000-83,300 levels. Below 25,000/82000, selling pressure is likely to accelerate, he said.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Bajaj Broking Research expects Nifty Bank to maintain positive bias and head higher towards 57,300 levels in the coming sessions. The short-term structure remains constructive with immediate support placed at 55,900 levels being the last Friday’s breakout area. While key support is placed at 55,400-55,500 levels being the confluence of 20 days EMA and key retracement area.

Nifty Bank appears to be undergoing a minor correction, which may extend toward the previous support zone near 56,100. Nifty Bank holds above all key moving averages, indicating that the broader trend remains intact. A range-bound movement may continue in the upcoming session, unless key supports are breached, said Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities.