Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 42 pts; key levels to watch for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian stock markets are staring for another muted start on Tuesday with mild positivity even as the US stocks slumped in overnight trade and major Asian peers were trading in red amid the rising clash between US President Donald Trump and US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over rate cuts.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 41.50 points, or 0.17 per cent, lower at 24,177, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Tuesday. Major Asian stock markets edged down at the open on Tuesday amid the loggerheads between US government and central bank, raising concerns about the central bank’s independence, sparking a selloff.

Japan’s Nikkei dropped 0.10 per cent, while Australia’s ASX 200 and New Zealand’s DJ shed up to half-a-per cent each. On the other hand, South Korea’s KOSPI was up marginally, while Shanghai Composite nudged slightly lower.

US stocks suffered steep losses on Monday as President Trump ramped up his attacks on Fed chai Powell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 971.82 points, or 2.48 per cent, to 38,170.41, the S&P 500 fell 124.50 points, or 2.36 per cent, to 5,158.20 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 415.55 points, or 2.55 per cent, to 15,870.90.

The dollar languished near its lowest level in three years on Tuesday as Trump’s unrelenting attacks on the US Fed chairman further eroded investor confidence in the US economy. The US dollar stood at 98.454, after sinking as low as 97.923 in the previous session.

The confrontation between President Trump and US Fed Chair Powell over the future of US interest rates can jolt markets worldwide, said Nigel Green, CEO at deVere, a wealth management firm. The brewing conflict has now burst into the open, and global investors are no longer waiting to see how it ends.

“This isn’t just a disagreement over timing. It is a power struggle between fiscal force and monetary independence. Markets are reacting” he added. “The risk is now twofold. First, that Powell holds the line and policy stays restrictive longer than markets had priced. Second, that Trump intervenes—publicly or politically—sparking concerns over central bank independence.”

Oil prices climbed in early trade on Tuesday as investors took advantage of the previous day’s losses to cover short positions, although concerns persisted over economic headwinds from tariffs and US monetary policy that could dampen fuel demand. Brent crude futures rose 0.8 per cent, to $66.77 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $63.59 a barrel.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said that Monday’s rally was driven by strong buying in heavyweight stocks and sustained foreign fund inflows. “The continued weakness in the US Dollar Index is further reinforcing positive sentiment in the Indian market,” he said.

There is optimism over US Vice President JD Vance’s four-day visit to India on hopes of a bilateral trade deal between the two countries, Khemka added. “We expect positive momentum to continue in the market, supported by strong domestic cues with stock and sector specific movements on the back of ongoing Q4 earnings announcements.”

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,970.17 crore on Monday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned net buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 246.59 crore.

Nifty outlook
The Nifty has given a clean breakout and sentiment is expected to remain positive as long as the index sustains above the critical moving average, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. “The Nifty has moved above the critical resistance of 24,100. It looks well on track to reach the 24,450–24,500 zone in the short term. On the lower end, support is placed at 23,850.”

A long bull candle was formed on the daily chart of Nifty, indicating a decisive upside breakout of down sloping trend line hurdle around 23850 levels, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities. “The underlying trend of Nifty continues to be strong. Nifty could advance towards the next resistance of 24,550 levels in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 23900 levels,” he said.

The 24,200-24,325/79,700-80,000 range would act as key resistance areas, while 24,000/79,000 and 23,900/78,700 could serve as crucial support zones, said  Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities. “For day traders, as long as the market is trading above 23,900/78,700, buying on intraday corrections and selling on rallies would be the ideal strategy.”

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank registered a fresh all-time high of 55,461.65. Over the past few sessions, the index surged higher with a runaway gap, reflecting strong bullish momentum, said Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities. “The daily RSI is now hovering near the 75 mark, indicating the overbought zone and that momentum could slow down in the coming days,” he said.

“We expect Bank Nifty to move towards the 56,000 zone in the coming sessions. The Bank Nifty/Nifty ratio is suggesting continued relative outperformance in the medium term,” said Bajaj Broking Research. “Dips should be viewed as buying opportunities, the recent major breakout area of 54,000-53,500 should reverse its role and act as support from a short term perspective.”