Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 43 pts; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

India’s equity benchmarks are expected to open higher on Monday after a US court ruled that most of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs are illegal, but allowed them to remain in effect through October 14. Investors are also likely to take cues from the better-than-expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 42.50 points, or 0.17 per cent, up at 24,611, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian shares started the new month in the red on Monday. Nikkei dropped nearly 2 per cent, while KOSPI tanked 0.75 per cent. Hang Seng gained more than 2 per cent.

Last week’s highlights include PM Modi’s China visit, the rupee hitting a record low, Reliance planning Jio’s mega listing in H1 of 2026, strong GDP growth in Q1, and continued heavy FII selling, said Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP of Research at Mehta Equities. “While optimism hinges on the upcoming GST Council meet and possible Fed action, caution remains the watchword for bulls.”

The US stocks ended down from record highs on Friday, while investors parsed inflation data showing tariffs have started feeding into prices. The S&P 500 dropped 0.64 per cent to end the session at 6,460.26 points a day after notching a record-high close. The Nasdaq declined 1.15 per cent to 21,455.55 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.20 per cent to 45,544.88 points.

A confirmation hearing for Stephen Miran, Trump’s pick for another Fed position, is scheduled for Thursday. The dollar was adrift on Monday as markets looked ahead to a raft of US labour market data this week that could determine the size of the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut later this month. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar eased 0.04 per cent to 97.79.

In commodities, gold has benefited from the dollar’s decline and the outlook for lower rates to rise 2.2 per cent last week. The metal was just off a four-month top at $3,444 an ounce. Oil prices were on the defensive ahead of a planned increase in output from OPEC+ in coming months. Brent dropped 0.2 per cent to $67.35 a barrel, while US crude eased 0.2 per cent to $63.89 per barrel.

Investors will closely track auto sales data, along with HSBC Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. “The GST Council meeting will be a key focus, with expectations building around an accelerated implementation of proposed reforms following demands from industry bodies to set the near-term tone for risk sentiment.”

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 8,312.66 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 11,487.64 crore on a net-net basis. FIIs pulled out Rs 39,063 crore from the Indian equities in the month of August 2025.

It is important to note that FIIs have been sustained buyers in the primary market for long, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. “Sudden changes in tariff policies and exchange rates are also weighing on FII behaviour. These factors are likely to remain volatile in the near-term,” he said.
 

Nifty & Sensex outlook

Nifty has formed a long bearish candle and also a lower top formation, which is largely negative on the weekly charts. Nifty’s short-term outlook remains weak, but a fresh selloff is possible only if the level of 24,330/79,700 is breached, said Amol Athawale, VP technical Research, Kotak Securities.

“On the other hand, above 24,550/80,500, the pullback rally could continue up to the 20-day SMA or 24,700/81,000 and 24,800/81,300. On the downside, if the market falls below 24,330/79,700, it could slip to the 200-day SMA or around 24,070/78,900. Further downside may also continue, which could drag the market down to 23,900/78,400,” he said.

A decisive breach above this range could lead to an upside move toward 24,900. On the downside, 24,250 now serves as a key support level, said Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group. “A sustained move below it may trigger further downside toward 23,900. Overall, a ‘sell-on-rise’ approach near resistance remains favorable,” he said.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

The 200-day EMA zone of 53,600-53,500 will act as immediate support for Nifty Bank. Any sustainable move below the level of 53,500 will lead to further correction upto the 52,900, followed by 52,400 in the short term, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities. “On the upside, the zone of 54,500-54,600 will act as an important hurdle for it,” he said.

If this selling pressure persists and the index breaks below 53,570 (200-DEMA), it could trigger a deeper corrective move toward 53,480 and 53,000. However, if the 200-day EMA holds as support and Bank Nifty manages to rebound, immediate resistance is placed around 54,000, said Choice Broking.

“A sustained breakout above this zone may attract fresh buying, with potential upside targets at 54,450 and 54,900. Given the current setup, traders are advised to remain cautious and follow strict risk management. A decisive close above 54,450 resistance or a breakdown below 53,570 support will be crucial in determining the next significant directional move in Nifty Bank,” it added.