Stock Market Today: Markets Count Down to Tariff Day

Stocks trended down after all three main U.S. equity indexes opened the new week in the green, as investors, traders and speculators continue to adjust to the Trump administration. At issue Monday were new and additional tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China scheduled to take effect on Tuesday as well as softening incoming economic data.

“A fundamental shift in macro and foreign policy has driven recent market volatility,” observes BlackRock Investment Institute Portfolio Strategist Devan Nathwani. “That comes on top of mega forces – structural shifts like artificial intelligence (AI) – that are shaping the outlook and can lead to varied outcomes over the medium term.”

BlackRock will emphasize “tactical views” over its chosen time horizon but still sees “AI driving corporate earnings strength.” At the same time, Nathwani writes, “This scenario is becoming more uncertain.”

Nvidia (NVDA), the leader of the AI revolution, continues to suffer in the aftermath of its fiscal year 2025 fourth-quarter earnings release, sliding 8.7%, shedding another $263 billion in market cap and again posting the steepest losses among the 30 Dow Jones stocks.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note kept falling, reaching a near-three-month low of 4.146% and closing at 4.161%, as market participants priced in less-than-resounding construction spending and manufacturing prints. The yield on the 10-year is now down more than 70 basis points from a 2025 peak of 4.896% on January 13.

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.5% at 43,191, the S&P 500 was off 1.8% to 5,849, and the Nasdaq Composite had lost 2.6% to 18,350.

What about growth

The Census Bureau said that total construction spending declined 0.2% in January, with residential spending falling by 0.5% after rising for three straight months.

Total nonresidential spending was up 0.1% as solid infrastructure and data-center gains offset weakness in manufacturing, commercial and education outlays.

“While relatively resilient economic growth and the lagged impulse from recent federal spending packages should continue as support factors,” wrote Wells Fargo economists Charlie Dougherty, Jackie Benson and Ali Haijibeigi, “elevated interest rates and increased economic policy uncertainty stand to constrain construction activity moving forward.”

Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 50.3 in February from 50.9 in January and missed the consensus forecast of 50.7.

“The anecdotal comments in the ISM survey point to tariffs as an upward pressure on inflation, a source of planning challenges for management teams, and a headwind to orders,” notes Comerica Bank Chief Economist Bill Adams. “The comments also mention DOGE cuts as a drag on orders.”

We now look forward to several key labor market updates on this week’s economic calendar.

What about earnings

The earnings calendar features fewer big names, though we still have reports outstanding from important consumer staples stocks such as Target (TGT).

Target will report results before the opening bell on Tuesday morning. Market participants will of course focus on the retailer’s outlook and management’s commentary on the consumer during its conference call.

There are bigger forces in play now too.

“Given concerns in the market about inflation and tariffs,” writes FactSet Senior Earnings Analyst John Butters in a February 28 note, “have analysts lowered EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the first quarter?”

According to Butters, “The answer is yes.” That’s not unusual, though, as analysts “usually reduce earnings estimates during the first two months of a quarter.” What we should note, Butters suggests, is the magnitude of the aggregate reduction.

From December 31 through February 27, analysts trimmed their earnings per share estimates by 3.5%. And that’s above averages across multiple long-term time frames.

“During the past five years (20 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first two months of a quarter has been 2.6%,” Butters adds. Over 10 years and 40 quarters, the average decline is also 2.6%. For 15 years and 60 quarters, it’s 2.4%, and for 20 years and 80 quarters, it’s 3.1%.

The decline this time around exceeded the five-, 10-, 15- and 20-year averages. And all 11 sectors have seen decreases in their estimates, led by materials stocks (-16.2%) and consumer discretionary (-8.8%).

Analysts lowered estimates for the full year by 1.0%. The decline was larger than the five-year average, the 10-year average and the 15-year average but smaller than the 20-year and the 25-year average.

Palantir stock sees a DOGE bounce

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) was up as much as 6.5% on Monday, rising against the tide the same day Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said the AI stock could reach “a trillion-dollar market cap” in the discountable future.

“There is a growing view in the 202 area code that the efficiency focus of the DOGE initiatives could be a major coup for the likes of Palantir over the next year,” Ives writes, citing a “unique software value proposition” that “plays perfectly into this broader Beltway theme under Trump and Musk (DOGE).”

Ives suggests “Palantir could actually gain more deals and IT budget dollars across various government agencies and ultimately further entrench PLTR in the fiscal year 2025 and FY 2026 federal budget cycle.”

Indeed, as Ives sees it, “Palantir is in the sweet spot to benefit from a tidal wave of federal spending on AI while other non-strategic areas of the federal IT budget get scrutinized/cut.”

The analyst reiterated his Outperform rating (equivalent to Buy) and his 12-month price target of $120 for PLTR stock.

Following a late-day market sell-off triggered by post from President Trump on Truth Social affirming his commitment to tariffs, Palantir closed down 1.8% at $83.42. That leaves implied upside of 43.8% from Ives’ target.

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