Stock Market Today: Nasdaq Composite Crashes – How Far Will NVIDIA (NVDA) Drop Today?

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Technology stocks are poised to see painful drops across the board on Monday. As of 8:20 a.m. ET, here’s where major indexes are trading in premarket:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Down 328 (-.74%) 
• S&P 500: Down 128.75 (-2.10%)
• Nasdaq Futures: Down 795.50 (-3.61%)

As you can see, the closer indexes get to being heavily invested in technology, their losses accelerate. The primary cause for these sell-offs is an increasing market panic around DeepSeek, which has created a family of artificial intelligence models that are highly efficient. 

Let’s dive deeper into today’s biggest news, look at what companies are dropping, and also see what Wall Street is saying. 

What is DeepSeek?

DeepSeek is a Chinese LLM firm that released new models and submitted a paper on their R1 model last week. The headline figure that caught most of the media’s attention is DeepSeek’s accounting, which shows that R1’s training run used only 2,048 NVIDIA GPUs and cost less than $6 million. 

The $6 million figure is just the marginal cost for a training run (so it doesn’t show the true cost to develop a cutting-edge model). However, DeepSeek R1 does contain a number of breakthroughs in making AI models more efficient that have caught the broader AI world by surprise. Numbers adjust depending on the metric you’re looking at, but DeepSeek is anywhere from ~20 times more efficient on some metrics (like per token expense on its API) to nearly 50X less expensive in model training costs. 

The decreasing cost of using AI should be a good thing in that it will spur significantly more adoption of the technology. You might expect to cause an increase in the price of technology stocks. 

Yet, the opposite is happening today. That’s partially due to the massive investment many U.S. companies have made in computing infrastructure. The market is increasingly weary that big tech companies have overspent or are now disadvantaged. Of course, there’s a healthy debate as to the degree this impacts major companies and even whether they’re winners or losers from DeepSeek’s efficiency breakthroughs. We’ll detail some of the bull vs. bear arguments below. 

What Stocks Are Decling the Most Today: From NVIDIA to Amazon 

The market today will focus mostly on NVIDIA (Nasdaq: NVDA). The company is down 11.5% in premarket trading and is headed to the biggest one-day market capitalization loss from any company. 

NVIDIA is most in focus because DeepSeek challenges assumptions around how many GPUs are needed in the years to come. It’s not that NVIDIA is ‘dead,’ but spend on AI infrastructure may cool (see our bull and bear debates in the section below). 

NVIDIA is down 11.5% to around $126 per share in premarket trading. 

Other infrastructure stocks that rallied last week on announcements like Trump’s $500 billion Stargate plan and Meta Platforms (Nasdaq: META) taking up their spending plans this year will struggle today as well. 

• Broadcom (Nasdaq: AVGO): Down 10.9%
• Marvell (Nasdaq: MRVL): Down 11.3%
• Coherent (Nasdaq: COHR): Down 10.4% 

Generally, if a stock is involved in the ‘AI infrastructure’ trade, they’re down around 10% in premarket trading. Looking at a wider set of technology stocks, here’s how hyperscalers are faring shortly before market open:

• Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN): Down 3.1%
• Meta Platforms (Nasdaq: META): Down 2.7%
• Google (Nasdaq: GOOGL): Down 3.4%
• Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT): Down 4.3% 

Bull vs. Bear: What Wall Street Is Saying About NVIDIA and AI Stocks Today 

We’ll keep updating throughout the day, but here’s what Wall Street is saying about leading AI stocks today. 

A couple of Wall Street banks defending shares of NVIDIA:

• Citi on NVIDIA (Maintains Price Target of $175): While DeepSeek’s achievement could be groundbreaking, we question the notion that its feats were done without the use of advanced GPUs to fine tune it and/or build the underlying LLMs the final model is based on through the Distillation technique. While the dominance of the US companies on the most advanced AI models could be potentially challenged, that said, we estimate that in an inevitably more restrictive environment, US’ access to more advanced chips is an advantage. Thus, we don’t expect leading AI companies would move away from more advanced GPUs which provide more attractive $/TFLOPs at scale. We see the recent AI capex announcements like Stargate as a nod to the need for advanced chips. 
• Cantor Fitzgerald on NVIDIA (Maintains Price Target of $200): The announcement is actually very bullish with AGI seemingly closer to reality and Jevons Paradox almost certainly leading to the AI industry wanting more compute, not less. We would be buyers of NVDA shares on any potential weakness.

On the more negative end of reactions:

• Raymond James: Questions whether the need for large GPU training clusters is needed moving forward. 
• Jefferies: Believes that 2026 AI capital expenditures could be under pressure. 
• JPMorgan: Worried that the AI investment cycle has become too hyped. 

Once again, we’ll continue updating this live blog throughout the day as reactions continue pouring in from across Wall Street and the broader investment world.