US stocks on Tuesday seemed to shrug off President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose fresh tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) climbed roughly 0.4%, eyeing a record close, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also jumped about 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) reversed earlier losses to edge up around 0.1% after retreating from its latest record.
Carmaker stocks, both domestic and abroad, fell on the heels of Trump’s “America First” push. Nissan (7201.T) and Honda Motor (HMC), which have auto plants in Mexico, came under pressure, along with Ford (FORD), General Motors (GM), and Stellantis (STLA).
Outside of possible tariffs, investors also digested the release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting ended Nov. 7, which showed officials prefer a gradual pace of interest rate cuts if the economy remains on solid footing.
“Participants anticipated that if the data came in about as expected, with inflation continuing to move down sustainably to 2 percent and the economy remaining near maximum employment, it would likely be appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy over time,” the minutes read.
Some officials noted that a resurgence of inflation, which has remained sticky, along with a downturn in the labor market, could force the central bank to pause its easing cycle.
The release sets the stage for the October reading of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, on Wednesday.
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Americans are feeling better about the labor market
After several months of downbeat data to end the summer had workers feeling sour about the prospect of finding a new job, consumers feelings about the labor market may be rounding a corner.
On Tuesday, fresh data from the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence survey for the month showed the difference between respondents who believe jobs are “plentiful” and those saying jobs are “hard to get” ticked up for the second-straight month. The metric, known as the labor market differential, ticked up to a reading of 18.2% in November, up from the cycle low of 12.7% seen in September.
“This slightly improved read on the jobs market is certainly boosting confidence and if it weren’t an election year, it would be the sole focus of consumers,” Wells Fargo senior economist Tim Quinlan wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday.
Overall, the upbeat labor market outlooked helped propel consumer confidence to a reading of 111.7 in November, above the 109.6 seen in October and the highest level in more than a year.
“November’s increase was mainly driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly regarding the labor market,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board. “Compared to October, consumers were also substantially more optimistic about future job availability, which reached its highest level in almost three years.”
Today at 7:12 PM UTC
Fed officials see gradual interest rate cuts with a pause possible if ‘inflation remained elevated’
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s November meeting released on Tuesday showed officials prefer a “gradual” interest rate cutting cycle if the economy continues on it’s current trajectory.
“Participants anticipated that if the data came in about as expected, with inflation continuing to move down sustainably to 2 percent and the economy remaining near maximum employment, it would likely be appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy over time,” the minutes read.
But recent sticky inflation prints have caught officials’ attention. In a recent speech, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman highlighted that in the past few months, when measures of inflation excluding gas and autos have largely moved sideways, the Fed’s progress toward its 2% goal has “stalled.” Should that trend continue, the central bank may opt to pause interest rate cuts.
“Some participants noted that the Committee could pause its easing of the policy rate and hold it at a restrictive level if inflation remained elevated, and some remarked that policy easing could be accelerated if the labor market turned down or economic activity faltered,” the minutes read.
Today at 6:16 PM UTC
Rivian stock climbs on $6.6 billion loan
Rivian stock (RIVN) is jumping, rising over 4% in afternoon trade.
Yahoo Finance’s Pras Subramanian tells us why:
Late Monday, Rivian said it won a “conditional commitment” from the Department of Energy (DOE) for a $6.6 billion loan, highlighting the company’s improving capital condition.
The loan, part of the DOE’s Energy’s Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing (ATVM) program, would support the construction of Rivian’s upcoming assembly plant located outside of Atlanta.
Rivian paused development of the site back in March due to concerns about its capital position. At the time, Rivian said building its upcoming R2 vehicles at its existing Normal, Ill., plant instead would save the company over $2 billion in costs.
If finalized, the new DOE loan would restart Rivan’s plans to develop the Georgia assembly plant.
“This loan would enable Rivian to more aggressively scale our US manufacturing footprint for our competitively priced R2 and R3 vehicles that emphasize both capability and affordability,” CEO RJ Scaringe said in a statement. “A robust ecosystem of US companies developing and manufacturing EVs is critical for the US to maintain its long-term leadership in transportation.”
Bitcoin prices (BTC-USD) retreated about 2% on Tuesday as the cryptocurrency’s bid to reach the $100,000 milestone lost steam.
The largest digital currency, which posted its longest losing streak since Trump’s election win, traded just around $92,500 per token in early afternoon trade.
Trump’s win pushed bitcoin prices to all-time highs in the immediate aftermath of the election, with the administration viewed as generally more friendly to the alternative asset class.
In July, Trump attended a bitcoin conference in Nashville and has since pledged to usher in more supportive regulation. His promises also include appointing a crypto Presidential Advisory Council and firing current SEC Chair Gary Gensler.
Other crypto-adjacent names mimicked bitcoin’s moves to the downside.
Shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR), which owns nearly 280,000 bitcoins, dropped around 3%. Last week, the company announced the purchase of an additional 51,780 bitcoins for $4.6 billion. The company now holds $16.5 billion worth of bitcoin.
Coinbase (COIN), which allows crypto trading on its platform, saw shares fall roughly 2%.
Today at 4:45 PM UTC
Amgen drags Dow lower after weight loss drug data fails to impress
Amgen (AMGN) was the biggest laggard in the Dow on Tuesday, falling as much as 12% after its weight loss drug met Wall Street expectations but was only on par with competitors like Eli Lilly (LLY).
Yahoo Finance’s Anjalee Khemlani reports:
The company reported 20% weight loss from the drug MariTide in patients after 52 weeks in a phase II study. By comparison, current market leaders Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) have products that provide weight loss between 14% and 24%. Analysts on an investor call with Amgen Tuesday morning characterized the data as “in line” with the currently available products.
Mizuho’s healthcare sector expert Jared Holz said, on the surface, the data would draw more interest, but because Amgen is late to the weight-loss market — with a phase III trial still needed — it is at a disadvantage.
In addition, “AMGN did not disclose which dose it plans to move forward, but would guess that the higher doses are driving better weight loss so need to consider how the side effect profile looks in these specific formulations,” Holz wrote in a note to clients.
Mexico will retaliate if President-elect Donald Trump follows through on his recent tariff threats, the country’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said.
Late on Monday, Trump said in a post to his Truth Social account that he plans to enact a 25% tariff on all Mexican and Canadian imports. He said the levies would remain in effect until those countries address illegal immigration to the US and drug trafficking.
Sheinbaum said on Tuesday that tariffs would lead to increased job losses and inflation. “To one tariff will come another and so on, until we put our common businesses at risk,” she told reporters in a briefing.
The companies most exposed to the tariffs include automakers with plants in Mexico, such as Nissan, Honda Motor (HMC), Ford (FORD), Stellantis (STLA), and General Motors (GM), among others.
“Why impose a tax that puts them at risk?” Sheinbaum asked. “It’s not acceptable.”
The Mexican leader said she plans to send a letter to Trump, urging for more dialogue and collaboration between the two countries.
“This is a relationship that we know takes a certain amount of working on,” Trudeau said. “And that’s what we’ll do.”
Today at 3:53 PM UTC
New home sales slump to lowest level in almost two years
Sales of new single-family homes plummeted in October to the lowest level in about two years as mortgage rates remained elevated during the month.
New home sales dropped 17.3% in October to a seasonally adjusted rate of 610,000 units, down from September’s revised rate of 738,000, according to Census Bureau data released on Tuesday. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a pace of 725,000.
The median sales price of new houses sold was $437,300, up from $426,300 the previous month.
Mortgage rates marched higher during the month of October, discouraging buyers from purchasing a new home.
Builders have adapted accordingly. DR Horton (DHI) CEO Paul Romanowski told investors and analysts on the homebuilder’s fourth quarter earnings call in late October that the company’s executives “expect incentives will have to remain elevated in order to maintain affordability and monthly payments that our buyers are looking for.”
Today at 3:23 PM UTC
Consumer confidence rises to highest level since July 2023
American consumers continue to feel more upbeat about the outlook for the US economy.
The latest US consumer confidence index reading from the Conference Board was 111.7, above the 109.6 seen in October and the highest level in more than a year. The expectations index, which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, ticked up 0.4 points to 92.3, significantly above the threshold of 80 that typically signals recession ahead.
Less than 64% of respondents said they believe a US recession is “somewhat” or “very likely” in the next 12 months, marking the lowest number of consumers fearing an incoming recession since the Conference Board began asking the question in July 2022.
“November’s increase was mainly driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly regarding the labor market,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board. “Compared to October, consumers were also substantially more optimistic about future job availability, which reached its highest level in almost three years.”
In November, 33.4% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” down from the 34.1% seen in October. But the number of respondents saying jobs were “hard to get” also fell to 15.2% from 17.6% seen the month prior.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) inched up roughly 0.3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) jumped about 0.4% as investors weighed the latest tariff threat from President-elect Donald Trump.
Today at 2:27 PM UTC
Home price growth slowed in September
US home prices rose in September, but the pace of price increases moderated on an annual basis.
The S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index increased 3.9% from a year ago, a smaller increase from the 4.2% annual gain seen in August.
Prices rose 0.3% over the prior month in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, unchanged from August’s monthly increase.
The index tracking home prices in the 20 largest metropolitan areas gained 0.2% in September from August, lower than a Bloomberg consensus estimate of 0.3% and August’’s 0.4%. The 20-city index jumped 4.6% compared to last September. August’s annual gain was 5.2%.
“Home price growth stalled in the third quarter, after a steady start to 2024,” Brian Luke, head of commodities, real & digital assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices, wrote in a press release. “The slight downtick could be attributed to technical factors as the seasonally adjusted figures boasted a 16th consecutive all-time high.”
Today at 1:15 PM UTC
Good morning. Here’s what’s happening today.
Economic data: S&P CoreLogic 20-city (August); New home sales (October); Conference Board Consumer Confidence (November); Richmond Fed manufacturing index (November), FOMC Meeting Minutes (November meeting)
Earnings: Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Autodesk (ADSK), Best Buy (BBY), Burlington Stores (BURL), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Dell (DELL), HP (HPQ), Kohl’s (KSS), Manchester United (MANU), Urban Outfitters (URBN), Workday (WDAY)
Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning:
Flash analysis: Another ugly quarter from Best Buy
Looking for some pre-holiday cheer? Well, you won’t find any in the earnings out of Best Buy (BBY) this morning.
A couple of things stood out:
I can’t say the report is surprising, given the discretionary category weakness we have seen in earnings reports this month from Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Home Depot (HD), and Lowe’s (LOW). But the declines for Best Buy suggest it will have a slog of a holiday season.
Yahoo Finance senior reporter Brooke DiPalma will have coverage on Best Buy throughout the morning, so stay plugged in here. Yahoo Finance will also be serving up live analysis out of the gate at 9 a.m. ET today — which you can catch here.
