Stock Market Today: S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Gain As Government Shutdown Looms— Kellanova, Carnival Corp, Jefferies In Focus

U.S. stock futures rose on Monday following Friday’s advances. Futures of major benchmark indices were higher.

As the futures advanced, gold prices also hit a new all-time high on Monday morning, with the investors overlooking the possibility of a Donald Trump-led government shutdown.

While the market appears calm, a key risk that looms with the near-certainty of the shutdown is a potential blackout of crucial economic data that could leave investors and policymakers flying blind.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.14% and the two-year bond was at 3.62%. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool’s projections show markets pricing an 89.3% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting the current interest rates in its October meeting.

Futures	Change (+/-)
Dow Jones	0.38%
S&P 500	0.50%
Nasdaq 100	0.65%
Russell 2000	0.66%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, respectively, rose in premarket on Monday. The SPY was up 0.51% at $665.18, while the QQQ rose 0.69% to $600.09, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Cues From Last Session

Materials, utilities, and consumer discretionary stocks recorded the biggest gains on Friday, while consumer staples stocks bucked the overall market trend by closing the session lower. This broad strength helped U.S. stocks settle higher, following the release of inflation data.

Inflation figures released Friday showed no surprises but indicated the Fed’s need for caution on its rate-cut cycle. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.7% year-over-year in August, up from 2.6% in July, matching forecasts. The core PCE, which excludes food and energy and is closely watched by the Fed, remained flat at 2.9%, in line with expectations.

Major indices, however, recorded losses last week, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 0.7% and the S&P 500 losing 0.3%. The Dow also fell 0.2% during the week.

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) surged more than 4% on Friday, extending its weekly gain to around 20% following last week’s 22% advance. The chipmaker continues to ride the momentum of Nvidia Corp.‘s (NASDAQ: NVDA) $5 billion investment pledge, which reinvigorated investor enthusiasm.

The Dow Jones index ended 300 points or 0.65% higher at 46,247.29, whereas the S&P 500 index rose 0.59% to 6,643.70. Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.44% to 22,484.07, and the small-cap gauge, Russell 2000, gained 0.97% to end at 2,434.32.

Index	Performance (+/-)	Value
Nasdaq Composite	0.44%	22,484.07
S&P 500	0.59%	6,643.70
Dow Jones	0.65%	46,247.29
Russell 2000	0.97%	2,434.32

Insights From Analysts

Investors shrugged off the near-certainty of a government shutdown as Wall Street weighed the limited immediate financial fallout against the more significant risks of a prolonged political impasse.

According to Jim Bianco, President at Bianco Research LLC, the market’s muted reaction is logical, as the initial shock is often minimal. He notes that while a shutdown matters for many reasons, “its INITIAL impact on security prices or exchange rates should be negligible.”

The primary concern for financial markets, Bianco argues, is not the shutdown itself but the suspension of government services that produce vital economic statistics.

“The biggest FINANCIAL MARKET impact from a shutdown is the suspension of government-released economic data,” he stated. This “data blackout” could have tangible consequences quickly; for instance, the critical September unemployment and payroll report, due Friday, Oct. 3, would not be released if the government is closed.

Meanwhile, Data compiled by Carson Research’s Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick, highlights that the fourth quarter has been a boon for investors, boasting an average return of 4.2%, significantly outperforming all other quarters.

However, the path through the fourth quarter may not be smooth. Detrick’s analysis shows that in years when the S&P 500 was up more than 10% year-to-date at the end of September, October’s performance has been a coin flip.

“October is down on avg and higher only 50% of time” under these conditions, he explains. The average return for October in these instances is -0.3%, a stark contrast to the quarter’s overall strength.

See Also: How to Trade Futures

Upcoming Economic Data

Here’s what investors will be keeping an eye on this week;

• On Monday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will speak at 7:30 a.m., Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will speak at 10:00 a.m., and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak at 6:00 p.m. ET.

• August’s pending home sales data will be out by 10:00 a.m. ET

• On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak at 6:00 a.m. and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak at 1:30 p.m. ET.

• July’s S&P Case-Shiller home price index for 20 cities will be out by 9:00 a.m., September’s Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) will be released at 9:45 a.m. Meanwhile, August’s job openings and September’s consumer confidence data will be announced by 10:00 a.m. ET.

• On Wednesday, September’s ADP employment data will be out by 8:15 a.m. ET, whereas the time for September’s auto sales data is yet to be determined.

• September’s S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI will be released at 9:45 a.m., August’s construction spending data and September’s ISM manufacturing data will be out by 10:00 a.m. ET.

• On Thursday, initial jobless claims data for the week ending Sept. 27 will be out by 8:30 a.m. ET.

• August’s factory orders data will be released at 10:00 a.m., and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak at 10:30 a.m. ET.

• On Friday, September’s U.S. employment report, unemployment rate and hourly wages data will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.

• September’s S&P final U.S. services PMI will be out by 9:45 a.m., ISM services data will be announced at 10:00 a.m., and Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak again at 1:40 p.m. ET.

Stocks In Focus

• Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) was up 1.89% in premarket on Monday ahead of its earnings report scheduled to be released before the opening bell. Analysts estimate earnings of $1.32 per share on revenue of $8.10 billion.

• Progress Software Corp. (NASDAQ: PRGS) was unchanged as analysts estimate earnings of $1.30 per share on revenue of $240.11 million after the closing bell.

• Vail Resorts Inc. (NYSE: MTN) was 0.63% higher ahead of its earnings report scheduled to be released after the closing bell. Analysts estimate earnings loss of $4.75 per share on revenue of $273.91 million.

• Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (NYSE: JEF) was 0.015% below the flatline as analysts estimate earnings of 80 cents per share on revenue of $1.92 billion after the closing bell.

• JFB Construction Holdings (NASDAQ: JFB) surged 73.58% as it announced a $44 million private placement.

• Kellanova (NYSE: K) rose 4.84% after the Ferrero Group closed its $3.1 billion deal to acquire ready-to-eat cereal maker WK Kellogg Co.

• New Fortress Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: NFE) was up 4.74% following its deal from last week, for a long-term liquefied natural gas supply agreement with Puerto Rico, pending final approval by the island’s Financial Oversight and Management Board.

Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets

Crude oil futures were trading lower in the early New York session by 1.37% to hover around $64.82 per barrel.

Gold Spot US Dollar rose 1.52% to hover around $3,817.58 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $3,819.8 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.24% lower at the 97.9190 level.

Asian markets closed higher on Monday, except Japan’s Nikkei 225 index. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, China’s CSI 300, India’s S&P BSE Sensex, Australia’s ASX 200, and South Korea’s Kospi indices rose. European markets were higher in early trade.

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