Stock Market Update: Global Headwinds Keep Indian Equities in Check, RBI Policy Awaited

On Wednesday, the Nifty 50 closed 77 points higher at 24,620, while the Sensex added 260 points to end at 80,998. The Bank Nifty also gained 76 points to close at 55,676. Mid-cap and small-cap stocks continued to outperform their larger peers, with the Nifty Midcap 100 rising by 0.71 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 climbing 0.79 per cent.

The modest gains signal investor caution ahead of Friday’s monetary policy announcement by the Reserve Bank of India. Global cues remain mixed, with the US markets reflecting hesitancy amid trade policy concerns and a crucial employment report due later this week.

Market Sentiment & Technical Outlook

Nandish Shah, Deputy Vice President at HDFC Securities, said, “The Nifty 50 closed below its 20-day EMA for a second straight session, but held support above the previous swing low of 24,462. Upside resistance lies near 24,845, while 24,500 should provide a solid base.”

For banking stocks, Dhupesh Dhameja of SAMCO Securities commented, “Bank Nifty remains mildly bullish above short-term moving averages. However, momentum is weak due to pre-policy caution. A break above 56,150 may attract buying interest.”

Volatility Index Eases

India VIX dropped 4.89 per cent to 15.74 on Wednesday — nearly 10 per cent in two sessions — reflecting reduced short-term market anxiety. Dhameja noted, “The cooling volatility is possibly an early sign of optimism.”

Global Market Trends

In Europe, sentiment was more positive. Germany’s DAX reached a record high following a tax relief package, although eurozone business activity showed signs of stalling. The STOXX 600 rose 0.47 per cent, and the MSCI world equity index added 0.32 per cent.

Sumeet Bagadia (Choice Broking):

Ganesh Dongre (Anand Rathi):

Analyst Insight:

With RBI’s rate decision looming and mixed global cues, investors are opting for a range-bound strategy while keeping an eye on promising sectoral plays. Reduced volatility and improved mid-cap breadth offer some reassurance, though larger moves may depend on Friday’s policy announcement and global macroeconomic developments.