Teacher Rakko's Swing Trade Verification | Searching for 'Bottoming Out → Initial Reversal' with AI and Actually Trading #15
Searching for ‘Bottoming Out → Initial Reversal’ with AI and Actually Trading
This Week’s Swing Report | October 19–23, 2026
Hello, this is Teacher Rakko.
A swing trading project where I use AI to find candidates and record actual trades. This week, there were both profit-taking and stop-loss trades, but the realized profit and loss in the management records was +44,075 yen.
This time, I will organize this week’s sales, the cumulative total since the start of the project, and the Sekisui Chemical shares currently held. These records are kept separate from my day trading profit and loss.
■ This week’s swing profit is +44,075 yen
Here is the daily breakdown based on the sale date.
・October 21: +24,123 yen
・October 22: +7,005 yen
・October 23: +12,947 yen
Summarized by stock, I sold off the following 6 stocks. Split sales have been combined.
・Chudenko (1941) 100 shares: +17,730 yen
・Ezaki Glico (2206) 200 shares: -8,303 yen
・Meiji Holdings (2269) 200 shares: +24,042 yen
・Kirin Holdings (2503) 200 shares: +14,508 yen
・Mirait One (1417) 200 shares: -32,892 yen
・Nissin Foods Holdings (2897) 200 shares: +28,990 yen
The total for the 4 profitable stocks was 85,270 yen, and the 2 stocks with losses totaled 41,195 yen. Subtracting the two gives a profit of 44,075 yen.
On the final day, the 23rd, I sold 200 shares of Mirait One. I also sold the remaining 100 shares of Meiji Holdings and 200 shares of Nissin Foods Holdings, resulting in a profit of +12,947 yen for the day.
Looking only at the winning stocks, it seems to be going well, but the loss from Mirait One is not insignificant. These figures show the importance of looking at the amounts of both profits and losses, in addition to ‘how many times I won’.
■ Cumulative management total including past trades is +79,800 yen
Summing up the 25 sale records to date, the cumulative total is +79,800 yen.
■ Currently holding 200 shares of Sekisui Chemical
The holding currently being tracked in this project is 200 shares of Sekisui Chemical (4204). The average acquisition price is 2,566 yen.
The TSE spot closing price on October 23 at 15:30 was 2,586.5 yen. This was +13.5 yen, or +0.52%, from the previous day. From the previous weekend’s price of 2,576 yen on the 16th, it is +10.5 yen, or approximately +0.41%.
・Acquisition cost: 513,200 yen
・Valuation based on closing price: 517,300 yen
・Unrealized profit based on price difference only: +4,100 yen (approx. +0.80%)
The unrealized profit is calculated without including commissions, interest, taxes, etc. It has not been added to the realized profit/loss or cumulative balance mentioned earlier.
■ Confirming 2,600 yen and the earnings date for next week
From here on, this is the analysis for October 26th to 30th. This is not a decision on buying or selling, but a consolidation of conditions to confirm price movements.
On the upside, the first point of interest is the psychological threshold of 2,600 yen, starting from this week’s high of 2,599 yen. I want to confirm if it can break through with volume and maintain that level at the close. As of the 23rd, the high was 2,599 yen, so it has not broken through yet.
On the downside, the low of 2,560 yen on the 22nd and 23rd is the benchmark. If it breaks below this and cannot recover, I will next check this week’s low of 2,547.5 yen. The simple 25-day moving average as of the 23rd is approximately 2,532 yen, but this is a figure that changes daily and is not necessarily a place where a rebound will occur.
Note that the average acquisition price of 2,566 yen is the standard for my own profit and loss management. I consider it separately from the support line of the overall market.
As for profit-taking methods, there is a plan to judge by selling 100 shares at a time if the upside is heavy around 2,600 yen. If 100 shares can be sold at 2,600 yen, the price difference profit is 3,400 yen. If the holding is halved, the impact of a pullback can be suppressed, but the profit obtained from subsequent rises will also be smaller. This does not mean that I have actually decided on an order.
■ How to approach the October 30th earnings announcement
Sekisui Chemical is scheduled to announce its second-quarter earnings for the fiscal year ending March 2027 on Friday, October 30th. In the previous explanation, the company indicated front-loaded demand in the first quarter and a certain level of demand adjustment in the second quarter.
Therefore, in the earnings announcement, not only the cumulative figures for the first half but also the degree of demand adjustment and the outlook for the second half and the full year will be points to confirm. Regarding housing orders, September was up 2% year-on-year in value, but down 1% in the number of units. I want to be careful not to assume that the number of units has increased just by looking at the growth in value.
The Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting is also scheduled for the same 29th-30th. In addition to individual earnings, attention must be paid to the market’s reaction to interest rates and exchange rates.
Whether to hold through the earnings announcement, and if so, how many shares. This is a point I want to organize, including not only the expectation of a price increase but also the risk that the price will jump significantly after the announcement.
■ Review of this week
This week, including losses, the swing record landed in the positive.
However, finding ‘candidates likely to reverse’ with AI and leaving a profit from subsequent trades are different stories. In this verification, I want to focus not only on the amount of profit but also on the size of losses and the conditions for continuing to hold.
Next week as well, rather than trying to guess the outcome, I will value organizing the confirmed price movements and earnings information one by one.
Thank you for your hard work this week as well.
※ This is a personal trading record and analysis, and does not recommend buying or selling specific stocks. The level of analysis does not guarantee future price movements or executions.
【Aggregation/Reference Information】
Trading Profit/Loss: Aggregated from the individual’s latest management records. Stock prices are the cash closing prices as of 15:30 on October 23, 2026, and the survey was conducted at 16:47 on the same day (Japan Standard Time). Moving averages and weekly percentage changes are calculated from published closing prices.
Yahoo! Finance: Sekisui Chemical Stock Price
https://finance.yahoo.co.jp/quote/4204.T
Kabutan: Sekisui Chemical Daily History
https://s.kabutan.jp/stocks/4204/historical_prices/daily/
Sekisui Chemical: IR Calendar
https://www.sekisui.co.jp/ir/support/calendar/
Sekisui Chemical: FY2026 Q1 Earnings Presentation Materials
https://www.sekisui.co.jp/ir/pdf/event/20260731kg.pdf
Sekisui Chemical: Housing Order Flash Report
https://www.sekisui.co.jp/ir/results/housing_order/
Bank of Japan: Monetary Policy Meeting Schedule
https://www.boj.or.jp/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm
#StockInvestment #JapaneseStocks #SwingTrade #InvestmentRecord #TradeReview #AssetManagement #AIUtilization #RakkoSensei