Tesla Earnings: Wall Street Is Looking for Growth From EV Maker
Tesla is slated to release its fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes on Wednesday. Investors should brace for volatility.
Which way the stock will go after numbers land is, frankly, a coin flip. Any movement will hinge on what the electric vehicle maker—and CEO Elon Musk–say about growth, EV demand, and advances in AI.
For the fourth quarter, Wall Street analysts tracked by Bloomberg are expecting earnings per share of 75 cents, an operating profit of $2.7 billion, and sales of $27.2 billion. A year ago, Tesla reported EPS of 71 cents, an operating profit of $2.1 billion, and sales of $25.2 billion.
Sales and earnings are expected to grow because Tesla sold more cars and energy products. Tesla already announced Jan. 2 that it sold about 496,000 cars in the fourth quarter, up from about 485,000 in the fourth quarter of 2023. The company also deployed 11.0 gigawatt hours of energy storage products–a quarterly record. Tesla deployed 6.9 gigawatt-hours in the third quarter and 3.2 gigawatt-hours in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Along with current results, investors will want clues about EV sales, new models, and self-driving robotaxis. On Tesla’s third-quarter earnings conference call, Musk projected 20% to 30% automotive sales growth in 2025, due in part to a refreshed Model Y and a new lower-priced model that Wall Street often refers to as the Model 2. While the updated Y is now on sale in the U.S. and China, Model 2 details are thin: it’s supposed to go on sale in the first half of 2025 and start around $30,000 before any government subsidies.
Tesla also plans to launch an AI-trained self-driving robotaxi service in late 2025. Musk recently said that Tesla’s self-driving software would drive better than humans in the first half of 2025. Any self-driving updates will be meaningful for investors.
Some of those updates won’t come until management’s conference call, which is slated for 5:30 p.m. The discussion is certain to be wide-ranging and touch on Tesla-specific topics–but will likely stretch to include President Donald Trump’s EV policies, potential tariffs, Musk’s role in the federal government, and Chinese AI.
Coming into Wednesday trading, Tesla stock has fallen for five of the past six trading days, losing almost 7% over that span. Shares have still gained roughly 120% over the past 12 months, roughly 67% since the company’s Oct. 10 Robotaxi event, and almost 60% since the Nov. 5 presidential election.