Tesla stock forecast: Baird previews 2026
Baird expects Outperform-rated Tesla to enter 2026 with several significant catalysts that could shape investor sentiment through next year, News.Az reports, citing CNBC.
Analyst Ben Kallo wrote in a note Tuesday that “despite a sluggish start to the year, TSLA has gained 21% YTD and 7% in the last month,” outperforming the S&P 500 on both measures.
He added that the firm wants to “own TSLA into the new year” and continues to view the company as “a core holding.”
Baird feels that several developments will be key to watch, highlighting what they believe will be “a year of several announcements regarding robotaxi service.”
Furthermore, the firm expects potential updates on new geographies, revenue recognition and approvals in markets including China and the European Union.
Beyond autonomous driving, Kallo stated that 2026 should bring “updates on Optimus production and incremental details on the timeline to commercialization,” along with higher-volume Tesla Semi production and continued growth in the Energy segment.
The analysts also updated their model, noting changes to vehicle mix, ASPs and delivery assumptions through 2030.
Baird is removing its prior Model 2 delivery expectations because what it “had previously believed to be a new form factor was ultimately a new variant of the 3/Y.” The current estimates do not include capacity expansion beyond 3 million units annually.
On autonomy, Baird reiterated expectations for paid robotaxi service beginning in 2027 and first commercial Optimus sales in late 2027. The firm also pointed to “positive data points for FSD,” including praise for FSD 14 from Nvidia’s robotics team.
Baird maintained its $548 price target on TSLA, based on around 70 times its 2030 EBITDA estimate discounted to year-end 2026.