Tesla Stock Ignores Falling Car Sales as Robotaxi Hopes Take Over

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares slipped about 1% in premarket trading Monday, even as broader U.S. equity futures were little changed.

The stock has risen about 25% year to date, despite falling earnings estimates and softer vehicle sales expectations. Investors appear increasingly focused on Tesla’s artificial intelligence ambitions rather than its core auto business.

Wall Street now projects Tesla earnings per share of about $2.17 for 2026, down sharply from estimates near $4.25 a year ago. Fourth-quarter EPS is expected at around $0.44, versus $0.73 last year. Vehicle deliveries for the quarter are estimated near 440,000 units, with some forecasts drifting closer to 415,000.

Analysts note that auto fundamentals have become less central to the stock’s performance. Expectations are instead tied to potential inflection points in robotaxi services, humanoid robots, and AI software.

Tesla launched a supervised robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June. In late December, Chief Executive Elon Musk said he had tested the service without a safety monitor, raising speculation about faster regulatory progress.

Further expansion remains uncertain. Some analysts see robotaxi operations reaching dozens of U.S. cities by the end of 2026, which could reshape Tesla’s growth outlook.

Valuation remains elevated, with Tesla trading at roughly 230 times forward earnings, leaving 2026 execution as a key focus for investors.