The Bullish Case for Oil Is Real — But Far, Far Away

When a bet goes wrong, investors are often tempted to hold on, convincing themselves that their short-term trade was always meant to be a long-term position. The self-delusion is easiest in commodity markets: Their cyclical nature means that, inevitably, what’s high will eventually be low and vice versa. It just takes patience — and the stomach to withstand losses for as long as it takes.

With oil benchmarks down almost 20% over the last two years, upbeat investors are, out of necessity, waiting. The meme “We remain bullish” even trends on social media, defying the fact that almost every Wall Street bank remains resolutely bearish for 2026. For what it’s worth, I’m similarly bearish short-term. But that doesn’t mean oil prices — and the equities associated with the energy market — won’t eventually rebound.