The Commodities Feed: Oil drops on rising supply prospects
Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry reported that the Ukrainian winter grains plantations fell to 944.5k hectares as of 25 September, compared to 1.1m hectares at the same period last year. The decrease was driven largely by winter wheat, where the plantation decreased to 878.8k hectares from 1m hectares over the same period last year, as an intense drought has left the planting area too dry for sowing.
Recent weather reports suggest severe frost across Australia’s south and Southeast regions which contributes to around 10% of domestic wheat production. The unfavourable weather conditions could damage the wheat crops in the area that are in their final stage of growth before the harvest season (which usually starts in November). The region was initially expected to produce 3.2mt of wheat, however, that could be slashed by between 10-60% depending on the weather conditions. Total wheat production in Australia could fall below 29mt against earlier predictions of 31.8mt, after factoring in the recent frost conditions.
The latest estimates from Buenos Aires Grain Exchange show that the Argentine soybean crop could rise by 3% YoY to 52mt for the 2025 season. Similarly, wheat production could rise by 23% YoY to 18.6mt. The rise in production estimates is largely attributed to the favourable weather conditions in the country. In contrast, corn production is expected to be around 47mt, down 5.1% YoY for the abovementioned period.