The Commodities Feed: Supportive measures from China
In its first estimates for 2024/25, Thailand’s Office of the Cane and Sugar Board expects sugar production to rise by 18% year-on-year to 10.4mt for the upcoming season. The rise in estimates would be largely driven by favourable weather conditions and improved farming techniques. However, the global sugar market remains volatile with the outbreak of fires in Brazil, while Thailand’s sugar export prospects are still subjected to international demand and fluctuating prices. Meanwhile, exports have been impacted in the 2023/24 season due to reduced output, which fell 20.4% YoY to 8.8mt.
In its monthly crop monitoring MARS report, the European Commission estimates that corn yields could drop to 6.84t/ha from a previous projection of 7.03t/ha and below the five-year average of 7.35t/ha. Dry weather and lower rainfall in Europe’s southern-central and eastern regions weighed on corn yields. In contrast, soybean yield estimates rose from 2.75t/ha from its previous estimates to 2.81t/ha, higher than the five-year average of 2.73t/ha.
The latest data from the Uganda Coffee Development Authority show that Uganda’s coffee shipments rose 2% month-on-month and 13% YoY to a record high of 837.9k bags (surpassing a previous record of around 821.6k bags in July 2024) in August. The healthy harvest in the Southwestern region and Greater Masaka and higher global prices are primarily responsible for the stronger shipments. Meanwhile, cumulative shipments for the season (October 2023-August 2024) stood at 5.8m bags (60kg bag), up 4.6% YoY.
The USDA’s latest crop progress report shows that 65% of the US corn crop is in good to excellent condition, up from 53% at the same stage last year. The harvest is progressing well with 14% of the crop harvested, up from 13% at the same stage last year and also above the five-year average of 11%. As for the soybean crop, 64% is rated good to excellent, up from 50% at the same point the previous year. The harvest is showing decent progress with 13% of the area harvested, up from 10% at the same time last year. It is also higher than the five-year average of 8%. Finally, 25% of the winter wheat area has been planted, up from 23% at the same stage last year and slightly higher than the five-year average of 24%.
The USDA’s weekly export inspection data for the week ending 19 September shows strong demand for US grains. Export inspection for corn stood at 1,102.8kt over the week, up from 568.9kt a week ago and 710.6kt reported a year ago. Similarly, US wheat inspection stood at 711.1kt, higher than the 588.8kt in the previous week and 485.7kt reported a year ago. For soybeans, US export inspections stood at 485.2kt, up from 473.3kt last week but lower than the 508kt seen in the previous year.