The Fed Is in no Rush to Cut Rates, Even if There Is a Weak Jobs Report

When the Federal Reserve began lowering interest rates in September, inflation was cooling and the job market was showing some troubling signs of weakness.

Three months and a full percentage point of rate cuts later, the opposite is true: The job market seems to have stabilized, but progress on inflation has stalled.

As a result, the central bank is widely expected to pause its campaign of rate cuts at its meeting this month, a message reinforced by Fed officials in a series of speeches this week.

“While it is not my baseline outlook, I cannot rule out the risk that progress on inflation could continue to stall,” Michelle Bowman, a Fed governor, said in a speech on Thursday.

Ms. Bowman, the only Fed official to oppose the central bank’s half-point rate cut in September, voted in favor of last month’s more traditional quarter-point reduction. But in her speech, she said she “could have supported” keeping rates steady in December and hinted that she would be unlikely to support a cut in January unless economic conditions changed significantly before that meeting at the end of the month.

“In light of these considerations, I continue to prefer a cautious and gradual approach to adjusting policy,” Ms. Bowman said.