The ‘incredible period’ for the US economy is ending, Warren Buffett once said. Is his prediction coming true in 2026?

This article adheres to strict editorial standards. Some or all links may be monetized.

According to the world’s most famous investor, the U.S. economy’s “incredible period” would come to an end by the end of 2023. He said that even his own company, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A), wouldn’t be immune.

“The majority of our businesses will report lower earnings this year than last year,” Buffett cautioned at Berkshire’s 2023 annual meeting (1).

Top Picks

• The IRS usually taxes gold as a collectible — but this little-known strategy lets you hold physical bullion tax-free. Get your free guide from Priority Gold

That was a somewhat surprising statement from a man who has famously been ultra-bullish on the U.S. economy.

Persistently high inflation and interest rates, along with the ongoing banking crisis, made Buffett much more concerned about investment returns. His late business partner, Charlie Munger, echoed this sentiment at the time, saying, “Get used to making less.”

Yet despite his warnings, the S&P 500 has risen more than 60% since January 1, 2023 (2), suggesting that America’s biggest businesses have only grown bigger.

And now, the famed “Warren Buffett Indicator,” comparing the U.S. stock market to the U.S. economy, has surged to 230% (3). Buffett once warned that if the ratio approached 200%, investors were “playing with fire” — given it indicates stock valuations are rising significantly faster than GDP (4).

The question in 2026 is: Was Buffett right about his economic predictions?

Portfolio shockproofing

First and foremost, it’s worth understanding why the stock market has been tearing up the page since Buffett’s ominous 2023 warnings. According to a December 2025 Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article, “Anxiety has given way to hope on Wall Street (5).”

The stock market’s continued gains seemed to be mostly driven by investor optimism and innovation in tech — particularly AI.

The WSJ noted that job growth is slowing alongside rising unemployment. Those are two typical indicators of a slumping U.S. economy. Yet the optimism around tech, especially with regard to Nvidia, Microsoft and Meta (formerly Facebook), has spurred stocks up and up.

There are valid fears over the latest market boom being yet another bubble, and investors looking for a more diversified portfolio should consider investing in other industries, too.

“Massive tech behemoths are dominating the headlines and all the investment flows and analysis, but other companies are also executing,” Michael Antonelli, a market strategist at Baird, told the WSJ.

So too are other geographies. For instance, Canada’s Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) has grown double digits since last year (6). It’s largely driven by a sector entirely different from that of the U.S., though: While tech pushes the American market, energy leads the pack in Canada.

Read More: 5 essential moves to make once you’ve saved $50,000

Managing current market turmoil

However, the first quarter of the year has brought new concerns to bear on the market, most notably the war in Iran.

The S&P 500 endured five straight losing weeks in February and March — the longest negative streak since 2022. Though the run ended in early April, the market continues to whipsaw from gains to losses as hopes rise and fall about a possible end to the war, reports Bloomberg (7).

“We remain very reactive to headlines and rhetoric around the conflict, and the market is unlikely to have a sustained upward trajectory unless there are tangible signs of de-escalation,” Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide, told Bloomberg.

Yet in a recent interview with CNBC, Buffett seemed undaunted by current market losses.

“Three times since I’ve taken over Berkshire, it’s gone down more than 50%. This is nothing,” he said (8).

Staying calm in a crisis

At age 95, the Oracle of Omaha has the benefit of a lifetime’s worth of wisdom.

Consider the 2008 financial crisis: While others saw ruin, Buffett saw opportunity. During that fraught time, he invested $5 billion in Goldman Sachs and ultimately netted Berkshire Hathaway over $3 billion in profit (9).

While you may not have the insight of an oracle, you don’t have to navigate a volatile market alone.

Moby offers expert research and recommendations to help you identify strong, long-term investments backed by advice from former hedge fund analysts.

In four years, and across almost 400 stock picks, their recommendations have beaten the S&P 500 by almost 12% on average. They also offer a 30-day money-back guarantee.

Moby’s team spends hundreds of hours sifting through financial news and data to provide you with stock and crypto reports delivered straight to you. Their research keeps you up-to-the-minute on market shifts and can help you reduce the guesswork behind choosing stocks and ETFs.

Plus, their reports are easy to understand for beginners, so you can become a smarter investor in just five minutes.

Take the next step

Once you have the right advice, it’s time to make a move.

SoFi’s easy-to-use DIY investing platform lets you buy stocks, ETFs and more with no commission fees and no account minimums.

SoFi is designed for both beginners and seasoned investors, with real-time investing news, curated content and the data you need to make smart decisions about the stocks that matter most to you.

Plus for a limited time you can get up to $1,000 in stock when you fund a new account.

Over time, this helps make investing a habit and steadily grows your portfolio.

Diversify by investing in real estate

When it comes to shockproof investments, real estate is a great option that has long been touted for its inflation-hedging benefits.

However, the time, effort and costs involved in managing and maintaining multiple properties prevent many from investing. So unless you’re a hedge fund titan or an oil baron, you’ve been shut out of one of the most profitable corners of the market.

That’s where mogul comes in. This real estate investment platform offers fractional ownership in blue-chip rental properties, which gives investors monthly rental income, real-time appreciation and tax benefits — without the need for a hefty down payment or 3 a.m. tenant calls.

Founded by former Goldman Sachs real estate investors, the mogul team handpicks the top 1% of single-family rental homes nationwide for you. Simply put, you can invest in institutional quality offerings for a fraction of the usual cost.

Each property undergoes a vetting process, requiring a minimum 12% return even in downside scenarios. Across the board, the platform features an average annual IRR of 18.8%. Their cash-on-cash yields, meanwhile, average between 10% and 12% annually. Offerings often sell out in under three hours, with investments typically ranging between $15,000 and $40,000 per property.

Every investment is secured by real assets, not dependent on the platform’s viability. Each property is held in a standalone Propco LLC, so investors own the property — not the platform. Blockchain-based fractionalization adds a layer of safety, ensuring a permanent, verifiable record of each stake.

Getting started is a quick and easy process. You can sign up for an account and then browse available properties. Once you verify your information with their team, you can invest like a mogul in just a few clicks.

Another way to protect yourself from a potential market correction is by tapping into commercial real estate, which has a history of outperforming the S&P 500 over the long term (10).

If diversifying into multifamily and industrial rentals appeals to you, you could consider investing with Lightstone DIRECT, a new investing platform from the Lightstone Group, one of the largest private real estate companies in the country with over 25,000 multifamily units in its portfolio.

Since they eliminate intermediaries — brokers and crowdfunding middlemen — accredited investors with a minimum investment of $100,000 can gain direct access to institutional-quality multifamily opportunities. This streamlined model can help reduce fees while enhancing transparency and control.

And with Lightstone DIRECT, you invest in single-asset multifamily deals alongside Lightstone — a true partner — as Lightstone puts at least 20% of its own capital into every offering. All of Lightstone’s investment opportunities undergo a rigorous, multistage review before being approved by Lightstone’s Principals, including Founder David Lichtenstein.

How it works is simple: Just sign up with your email, and you can schedule a call with a capital formation expert to assess your investment opportunities. From here, all you have to do is verify your details to begin investing.

Founded in 1986, Lightstone has a proven track record of delivering strong risk-adjusted returns across market cycles with a 27.6% historical net IRR and 2.54x historical net equity multiple on realized investments since 2004. All told, Lightstone has $12 billion in assets under management — including in industrial and commercial real estate.

As such, even if multifamily rentals don’t appeal to you, Lightstone could still serve you well as an investment vehicle for other real estate verticals.

Get started today with Lightstone DIRECT and invest alongside experienced professionals with skin in the game.

Consider an overlooked inflation-resistant asset

Another reason to diversify? According to Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, speaking at the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in November 2025, “It’s likely there’ll be a 10% to 20% drawdown in equity markets sometime in the next 12 to 24 months (11).”

His warning is yet another that suggests diversification isn’t just smart — it’s essential.

Billionaires like Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates continue to invest heavily in stocks, but they also carve out a portion of their portfolios for assets that behave differently from the market.

One standout example: fine art, an asset that has posted positive returns over 20 years while showing low correlation to traditional equities (12).

Until recently, this world was off-limits. Now, with Masterworks, you can buy fractional shares in multimillion-dollar works by icons like Banksy, Picasso and Basquiat. While art can be illiquid and typically requires a long-term hold, it offers unique portfolio diversification.

Masterworks has sold 27 artworks so far, yielding net annualized returns like 14.6%, 17.6% and 17.8%.*

Moneywise readers can get priority access to diversify with art: Skip the waitlist here.

*Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Investing involves risk. See important Regulation A disclosures at Masterworks.com/cd.

Don’t try to time the market

Buffett’s past market fears may very well turn out to be founded. After all, the stock market ebbs and flows, rises and falls. Recession cycles are the natural ups and downs of an economy — and the fact is, trying to time the market by waiting it out for a better time to invest is a losing battle.

Here’s an example of that playing out: Between 1990 and 2024, the S&P 500 generated an annualized return of 10.7% for those who remained invested during the entire period. Investors who missed just the 15 best days during that period only saw returns of 7.6% — a sizable difference when you account for annual compounding (13).

Instead, consider just investing when you can, even in small amounts.

With Acorns, every time you make a purchase with your credit or debit card, it automatically rounds up the price to the nearest dollar and places the excess — the coins that would wind up in your pocket if you were paying cash — into a smart investment portfolio.

Let’s say you purchase a doughnut for $2.30 — Acorns will round that amount to $3.00 and invest the 70-cent difference for you. Look at this math: $2.50 worth of daily roundups adds up to more than $900 per year — and that’s before your savings earn money in the market.

Plus, if you sign up now, you can get a $20 bonus investment.

You May Also Like

Join 250,000+ readers and get Moneywise’s best stories and exclusive interviews first — clear insights curated and delivered weekly. Subscribe now.

Article sources

We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our editorial ethics and guidelines.

Fortune (1), (4); Yahoo Finance (2); Current Market Valuation (3); Wall Street Journal (5); Trading Economics (6); Bloomberg (7); CNBC (8), (11); Investopedia (9), (10); Deloitte (12); Morgan Stanley (13)

This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.