The only winner in U.S./Canada trade war ‘will be China’: Top Canadian diplomat in Boston warns

President Donald Trump’s administration announced Friday that it will move ahead with threatened tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico this weekend, NBC News and other outlets reported.

Goods from China could be subjected to a 10% tariff, while those from Canada and Mexico would be hit with 25% tariffs. Officials on both sides of the nation’s northern and southern border have said they are prepared to respond accordingly.

The tariffs on Canadian goods could be felt the most immediately in the Bay State, which has deep trade ties with the country’s nearest northern neighbor.

Here’s a snapshot:

No fewer than 15 Canadian biotech firms have a presence in Greater Boston, including such established companies as Stem Cell Technologies and AbCellera, according to a fact sheet provided by the Canadian consulate in Boston.

Start-up firms such as Alpha9 and Fusion Pharmaceuticals also have a Massachusetts presence. All told, 286 Canadian-owned companies employ 34,650 workers in Massachusetts.

Massachusetts also annually exports $3.3 billion in goods, including agricultural products, chemicals, and minerals and metals. The state also exports $2.4 billion in services, including financial services, to Canada every year, according to that same fact sheet.

Earlier this month, Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey warned that electricity costs in the state would increase by $200 million under Trump administration tariffs on Canada.

“Those countries are America’s largest trading partners. They are also Massachusetts’ largest trading partners. We trade a combined $29 billion worth of goods with them, annually. That includes lumber and materials we build homes and factories with; and the energy we power our homes, businesses, and cars with,” Healey said in remarks as prepared for delivery to the Associated Industries of Massachusetts’ meeting in Waltham, WBUR-FM reported.

Reaction also poured in from industry interests, with trade groups such as the American Building Materials Alliance calling on the Republican White House to exempt Canadian lumber from the trade sanctions.

In a statement, the trade group said such tariffs would drive up construction costs.

“We appreciate the administration’s focus on strengthening domestic industry, but these tariffs will unintentionally burden builders, suppliers, and consumers without achieving that goal,” said its government affairs director, Francis Palasieski.

“Given that architectural plans in the Northeast overwhelmingly require Canadian SPF lumber, we encourage the administration to consider an exemption to ensure construction remains affordable while we work together on long-term solutions that support American lumber competitiveness,” he said.

Brooke Thomson, the president and CEO of the Associated Industries of Massachusetts, noted that with “Canada and Mexico being among the largest trading partners with the Commonwealth, the potential price impacts are unclear, as are the implications such policies could have on trade relationships that are important to our economy.

But, she added, “What we do know is that Massachusetts is working hard to lower the cost of living and doing business in this state, to ensure we remain competitive and strong economically.”

MassLive recently spoke with Canadian Counsel General Bernadette Jordan about the trade and economic ties between Canada and the Bay State.

This conversation, conducted before tariffs were imposed, has been lightly edited for clarity and content.

Q: What’s the mood of Canadian citizens? What questions are you hearing from them?

Edwards: “We had delegations come from Canada to the U.S. That relationship is important. There are concerns about what a 25% tariff would look like, and what that means to both of our economies. We’ve been looking very carefully at what the executive orders said.”

“There is a continual dialogue because we do rely on each other. This doesn’t just impact Canada. If we have a 25% tariff and a dollar-for-dollar [response], it will impact people here in the U.S. as well.”

Q: What does that look like, as a practical matter?

A: “You will look at price increases — they will not be paid for by the government. They will be paid for by consumers. Some businesses have very small profit margins, and they will pass that cost down.”

“Eight out of 10 cars in Boston are fueled by gas from Canada. Twenty percent of the clean energy in New England comes from Canada. The oats you eat in your cereal come from Canada. It’s everyday things. We’re so intertwined, and we have been for so many years.”

“There are items from Canada made from goods in the U.S. and there are goods from the U.S. that go into Canadian-made products. We are very close allies as well as partners, and that will continue to benefit both of our countries.”

“If there is a trade war between Canada and the United States, the only winner will be China.”

Q: Have you spoken with [Boston Mayor Michelle Wu] or Gov. Maura Healey about the prospect of tariffs? What have those conversations yielded?

A: “I met recently with Gov Healey and a delegation from Prince Edward Island to just talk about the mutual benefits of our trade agreement, to make sure we protect jobs on both sides of the border. It is top of mind for all of us. We recognize that. Making sure we have conversations with our counterparts here in New England. It’s all part of making sure that we keep lines of communication open.”