Trump aide Peter Navarro claims India funding Russia-Ukraine war: Here's a fact check that proves him wrong

New Delhi:

White House adviser and Trump’s close aide Pter Navarro has been on anti-India rant lately, defending Donald Trump’s addiotional tariffs on Indian imports to the US over New Delhi’s oil trade with Russia. Navarro claimed the trade is directly helping Putin fund the war in Ukraine and the money is goig straight to his “war chest”.

In a series of posts on X on Friday, Navarro outlined how the India-Russia oil trade functions, noting that New Delhi uses dollars to purchase discounted Russian crude. He added that while American consumers buy Indian goods, India restricts US exports through high tariffs and non-tariff barriers.

However, the reality of the nature of India-Russia trade is far from what Navarro has claimed.

Here’s a point-by-point fact checl of Navarro’s claims:

Claim 1: President Trump’s 50% tariffs on Indian imports are now in effect. This isn’t just about India’s unfair trade—it’s about cutting off the financial lifeline India has extended to Putin’s war machine.

Fact: This view emanates from an over simplistic and incorrect understanding of global oil supply chain. It also completely ignores various set of decisions taken by G7/EU nations in the last 3 years, including 18 rounds of price cap sanction packages, aimed at ensuring that Russian crude oil keeps flowing albiet at a price lower than prevailing international price. 

Russia, the world’s second-largest crude oil producer with an output of around 9.5 million barrels/day (nearly 10% of global demand), is also the second-largest exporter, shipping about 4.5 mb/d of crude and 2.3 mb/d of refined products.

In March 2022, fears of Russian oil being pushed out of the market and the consequent dislocation of traditional trade flows drove Brent crude prices to soar to US $137 per barrel. If India were to stop buying Russian crude oil today, global crude prices could jump to over 200 dollars a barrel for all global consumers. 

India has not extended any financial lifeline to Putin’s war machine. If at all, India has extended a financial lifeline to all global citizens by ensuring that oil kept flowing, global prices were stable, markets were balanced while preventing “war profiteering” by any nation. 

Who benefited from India’s role?

The West itself. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said America was happy with India’s purchases. Ambassador Eric Garcetti admitted India prevented a price spike. Geoffrey Pyatt called India a key stabiliser.

Claim 2: Here’s how the India-Russia oil mathematics works: American consumers buy Indian goods while India keeps out U.S. exports through high tariffs and non-tariff barriers

Fact: Indian refiners do not use the US dollar to trade for Russian oil. Purchases are made through traders based in third countries, and transactions are therefore settled in alternative currencies such as AED rather than the US dollar.

In the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war, India was encouraged by the West to buy Russian crude, as removing the second largest producer with 10% of global production from the international market would have resulted in crude going to USD 200/barrel.

This is the reason why Russian oil has never been sanctioned by US/EU/G7, but it was placed under a G7/EU price-cap mechanism.

India’s crude purchases from Russia have remained legitimate and within the framework of all international norms, including the price cap.  

At no point of time has the US administration ever conveyed to India either verbally or through any diplomatic channel that it should stop buying Russian crude oil.  Suddenly, when the trade negotiations did not materialise as per the desires of the US administration, rash pronouncements have being made through social media and newspaper articles.

Claim 3: Indian refiners, with their silent Russian partners, refine and flip the black-market oil for big profits on the international market – while Russia pockets hard currency to fund its war on Ukraine.

Fact: Russian oil has never been sanctioned by US/EU/G7 unlike Iranian and Venezuelan Oil which is indeed sanctioned (which is not bought by our oil PSUs). 

Russian oil was subjected to a G7/EU price-cap mechanism designed to prevent “war profiteering” while ensuring global supplies continued to flow. 

If the United States really wanted to stop the flow of Russian oil, then it should have sanctioned Russian crude. Perhaps, the fear of spiralling prices has prevented the US from doing so.  

Also, India has refrained from LNG and LPG from any of the sanctioned projects from Russia.

In fact, the 18th package of EU sanctions has left Nayara Energy, a 20 MMTPA refinery, fully dependent on Russian oil. What was earlier 60–65 percent of its crude intake from Russia has now become 100 percent.

Nayara Energy, a 20 MMTPA refinery, fully dependent on Russian oil. What was earlier 60–65 percent of its crude intake from Russia has now become 100 percent.

Claim 4: Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian oil made up less than 1% of India’s imports. Today? Over 30%—more than 1.5 million barrels a day. This surge isn’t driven by domestic demand—it’s driven by Indian profiteers and carries an added price of blood and devastation in Ukraine.

Fact: In fact, India has been the only major economy in the world where the prices of petrol and diesel were reduced post the Russia- Ukraine crisis in May 2022.

In March 2022, fears of Russian oil being pushed out of the market and the consequent dislocation of traditional trade flows drove Brent crude prices to soar to USD 137 per barrel. But the prices of petrol and diesel could not have been increased for the 1.4 billion people in India. Therefore, the Govt of India took several measures:

• Oil PSUs did not increase prices and were making a net cash loss of upto Rs 10/litre in diesel (despite Russian crude discounts). Cumulative loss from April 22-January 23 of 3 oil PSUs was Rs 21,000 crores (USD 2.5 billion)
• As private refiners saw an opportunity to not sell in domestic market and export, an export tax was levied to prevent any super normal profits.
• The government also framed new rules requiring oil companies exporting petrol to sell in the domestic market at least the equivalent of 50 per cent of the amount sold to overseas customers for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2023. For diesel, this requirement was put at 30 per cent of the volume exported.
• This ensured uninterrupted fuel supplies so that not a single retail outlet ran dry.
• Govt of India and many state governments reduced taxes to the tune of Rs 10/ litre in May 22. 

These decisive actions demonstrate that India stood firmly with its citizens during a period of global turmoil, acting in the true spirit of democracy and not in the service of oligarchs or vested interests.

This decision not only safeguarded India’s energy needs but also contributed to global market stability. By importing the discounted Russian crude at a time when OPEC+ had already cut production by 5.86 million barrels per day, India prevented prices from spiralling further. 

Without this intervention, global oil prices could have exceeded the March 2022 peak reaching US$200 per barrel, intensifying inflation worldwide.

Claim 5: India’s Big Oil lobby has turned the largest democracy in the world into a massive refining hub and oil money laundromat for the Kremlin. Indian refiners buy cheap Russian oil, process it, and export fuels to Europe, Africa, and Asia—shielded from sanctions under the pretense of neutrality.

India has been the 4th largest refiner and 4th largest exporter of petroleum products since several decades and has a large refining industry, built through long term investments. India has 23 refineries, primarily serving domestic demand but is also a major exporter with products being exported to over 150 nations. 

India has not sold any cheap Russian crude to anyone else. It has converted some part of the Russian crude (and hundreds of grades of other global crudes) into petroleum products and used most of the refined products for its citizens. 

Refining crude and exporting fuels is how global supply chains function. After banning Russian crude, Europe relied on Indian diesel and jet fuel. That is not laundering, it is stabilising markets.

In fact, refining margins which are benchmarked globally went up in the immediate aftermath of the Russia- Ukraine crisis but came down very soon and have been at normal levels since long. Also, the Russian crude discounts came down significantly since long. The claims of super normal profits by refining entities are vastly exaggerated.

Claim 6: India now exports over 1 million barrels a day in refined petroleum—more than half the volume of Russian crude it imports. The proceeds flow to India’s politically connected energy titans—and directly into Putin’s war chest.

Out of the total imported crude oil (including Russian oil, which accounts for 30-35 percent of Indian’s import basket), the majority of the refined petroleum products approx. 70% are utilized in India to meet the domestic demand.

One of the private sector refineries of Reliance (out of their 2 refineries) was established in the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) since inception in 2006 and it is specifically meant for export. 

The export or resale of refined Russian oil products was never subject to sanctions under the G7 price cap regime. It was only under the EU’s 18th Sanctions Package that certain restrictions were introduced on petroleum products derived from Russian crude.

Though India’s total export of Petroleum products has remained stagnant, the export of petroleum products to EU has marginally increased to 21 MMT in FY 2024-25, where as India’s refining capacity increased from 249 MMTPA in 2021 to 260 MMTPA currently.

Additionally, the EU importers could also demonstrate a self-moratorium on purchasing refined products from India, in case they so desired.

Crude oil and petroleum products are fungible and will flow according to market dynamics.

Even before the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, India had exported 99.2 MMT in FY 2021-22, 98.8 MMT in FY 2022-23, 107 MMT in 2023-24 and 88.25 MMT in 2024-24. 

Thus, the export of refined POL form India is declining as the domestic consumption is increasing.

Export to EU: India exported 12.6 MMT (Valued US$ 8.8 billion) in FY 2021-22, 16 MMT (Valued US$ 15.6 billion) in FY 2022-23, 24 MMT (Valued US$ 19.2 billion) in FY 2023-24 and 21.1 MMT (Valued US$ 15 billion) in FY 2024-25.

The export to EU consists of mainly HSD and ATF with the Netherlands, France, and Belgium as the principal destinations. Notably, there has been no major shift in the destination profile of these exports, as the aforementioned three countries continue to be the primary importers.

Claim 7: While the United States pays to arm Ukraine, India bankrolls Russia even as it slaps some of the world’s highest tariffs on U.S. goods, which in turn punishes American exporters. We run a $50-billion trade deficit with India—and they’re using our dollars to buy Russian oil. They make a killing and Ukrainians die.

This is a hollow argument. The US runs trade deficits with China, the EU and Mexico. India’s 50 billion dollar deficit is small in comparison. At the same time India buys billions in US goods including aircraft, LNG, defence equipment and technology.

Claim 8: It doesn’t stop there. India continues to buy Russian weapons—while demanding that U.S. firms transfer sensitive military tech and build plants in India. That’s strategic freeloading.

No, how is India freeloading? India is investing heavily in US partnerships. Jet engine co-production with GE, MQ-9 drones, QUAD and Indo-Pacific defence cooperation. India is the only major power actively countering China militarily in Asia. This directly benefits the US.

Claim 9: The Biden admin largely looked the other way at this madness. President Trump is confronting it. A 50% tariff—25% for unfair trade and 25% for national security—is a direct response. If India, the world’s largest democracy, wants to be treated like a strategic partner of the U.S., it needs to act like one. The road to peace in Ukraine runs through New Delhi.

India has consistently called for peace and diplomacy at the UN. Demanding that India sanction Russia at the cost of its own survival is hypocrisy when Europe still buys Russian gas and the US still buys Russian uranium.

India acted responsibly, followed global frameworks and kept oil markets stable. Without India, prices would have spiralled and Western economies would have faced a far greater crisis. Scapegoating India is propaganda, not policy.