Trump says he’s ‘solved the inflation problem.’ The economic data tell a different story.

In other words, conventional wisdom and Fed officials have been correct and Trump — along with the other unidentified survey participant — have gotten it wrong so far. And a poll released over the weekend indicates most Americans also disagree with Trump’s assessment of the economy.

“The tariffs were forecast to slow growth and raise inflation,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at economics and research consulting firm Moody’s Analytics. “That’s exactly what they’re doing.”

The US economy contracted at a 0.5 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year after growing at a 2.4 percent rate in the last quarter of 2024. Growth is expected to return from April through June. But ahead of next week’s government report on that quarter, economists are predicting the rate of growth still will be less than at the end of last year.

Inflation had been trending down close to normal the past couple of years since reaching a four-decade high in 2022. But consumer prices have been moving up in recent months, including a 0.3 percent increase in June.

Still, Trump continues to claim that inflation is no longer a worry.

“We solved the inflation problem,” Trump told reporters Tuesday.

After the Labor Department released the June consumer price index last week, showing the annual inflation rate was up to 2.7 percent, Trump told reporters, “We’ve had no inflation” after first saying there was “a little inflation.” He also repeated the story about the survey of 71 economists and him.

When asked to send a copy of the survey or an online link, White House spokesperson Kush Desai only sent a statement saying that “the data has clearly vindicated President Trump.”

“So-called economic ‘experts’ have expended metric tons of hot gas predicting doom and gloom, from inflation to recession, about President Trump’s America First economic agenda of tariffs, deregulation, and tax cuts,” Desai said. “The exact opposite has transpired — inflation has cooled, trillions in historic investment commitments are pouring in, hundreds of thousands of jobs have been created, and billions in tariff revenue are being collected.”

The survey was not produced after two follow-up requests, either.

Regardless of Desai’s assertions, Americans don’t appear to be buying the White House inflation message.

A CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday found that 64 percent of US adults disapproved of Trump’s handling of inflation, up from 54 percent in March. Overall, 60 percent of adults disapproved of his handling of the economy, according to the poll.

Trump is finding out what other presidents have discovered: it’s difficult to spin the public on inflation when they’re experiencing the rising prices in their everyday lives.

“Donald Trump lives in his own fact-free bubble,” said Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat. “Yes, there is inflation. And yes, the direction is upward.”

Former president Joe Biden’s economic approval rating never recovered after inflation soared starting in 2021. He downplayed the price increases and officials from his administration described them as “transitory,” leading to resounding criticism when they turned out to be more persistent.

In exit polls from last year’s presidential election, 75 percent of voters said inflation had caused their families hardship over the previous year. About a third of voters said the economy was the issue that mattered most to them. That was second only to “the state of democracy” at 34 percent, and 20 points more than immigration.

Trump campaigned on a pledge to lower prices. But that hasn’t happened.

“Where Trump sort of lost the public is that the very first thing he did was increase tariffs, which increased prices, which seemed to go against everything he promised to do,” said Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg, who closely follows economic data. “He often tells a false story about what’s happening in the economy, and voters, I think, are aware that what he’s saying isn’t true.”

But Senator Rick Scott, a Florida Republican and strong Trump ally, said it’s too early to judge the president’s policies.

“Biden left him in a horrible situation,” Scott said. “It’s going to take some time.”

Another Senate Republican, Mike Rounds of South Dakota, highlighted the decline in gas prices in recent months and argued that Trump hasn’t really meant to say that there’s no inflation at all.

“They understand exactly what he’s trying to say, which is, you’re not seeing it spike right now,” Rounds said of Americans. “But it’s higher than what we want it to be. We’re going to have to continue to focus on bringing it down.”

Trump’s view that the inflation problem has been solved is at the heart of his nasty public dispute with Fed Chair Jerome Powell over interest rates.

The Fed aggressively raised its benchmark interest rate to more than 5 percent starting in 2022 to battle high inflation by slowing the economy. As price growth eased, Fed officials slowly started lowering the rate in 2024.

They planned to continue the cuts this year until Trump started raising tariffs while threatening higher ones. Fearful that inflation would accelerate, the Fed halted its rate cuts amid Trump’s frequently shifting tariff hikes and deadlines.

Many countries are facing high new reciprocal US tariffs on Aug. 1 if they do not agree to trade deals by then or Trump doesn’t extend the deadline.

Rosenberg said Trump’s push for the Fed to lower interest rates shows that administration officials know that inflation is becoming a problem even if they’re not saying it publicly.

“They know the tariffs are slowing the economy down and raising prices, and they need to do something to lower costs for people and to accelerate the economy,” he said. “It’s an admission that they understand that the tariffs are doing harm to the economy.”

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Jim Puzzanghera can be reached at jim.puzzanghera@globe.com. Follow him @JimPuzzanghera.