U.S. stock market futures fall: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq fall on oil drop, Fed signals, and rising Iran–Israel tensions

U.S. stock market futures are drifting slightly lower this morning, June 20, as traders weigh a mix of earnings surprises, falling oil prices, and fresh uncertainty over rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. With inflation data, Fed policy expectations, and crude volatility all in focus, investors are staying cautious ahead of the opening bell.

At around 7:30 a.m. ET, Dow Jones futures were down about 105 points, or 0.15%, while S&P 500 futures dipped around 0.2%. Nasdaq-100 futures slipped nearly 0.3%, dragged by tech-sector pressure and global risk sentiment.

Here’s where things stand:

• S&P 500 futures: down about 0.2% to 0.3%
• Dow Jones futures: lower by roughly 0.15% (about 105 points)
• Nasdaq-100 futures: sliding around 0.3%

Markets are treading carefully ahead of new economic data and uncertainty surrounding potential U.S. military involvement in the Middle East conflict.

What’s driving the U.S. stock market futures down today?

There’s no single reason why markets are down this morning—it’s a mix of headlines. The biggest drag comes from geopolitical uncertainty. After reports of Israeli military strikes in Iran earlier this week, oil prices surged briefly. Now, as things cool slightly, traders are rebalancing risk. President Trump is expected to make a key decision within the next two weeks on whether the U.S. will directly assist Israel militarily, which could have ripple effects across oil markets, defense stocks, and global equities. According to CNBC, this is one of the key concerns for investors trying to understand where markets could go next.
Then there’s the Federal Reserve. The central bank held interest rates steady this week but continued with a hawkish tone, suggesting it’s still not ready to cut aggressively. Traders in the futures market now price in about 47 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025, with around 59% odds of a September rate cut, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Which major stocks are making headlines in pre-market trading?

Several big-name companies are seeing sharp moves ahead of the trading session. Some are soaring, while others are tumbling after disappointing results or news.

Stocks on the rise

• CarMax (KMX) jumped 10% after reporting strong earnings that beat Wall Street estimates.
• Circle Internet (CRCL) rose 9.7% on investor optimism around a new digital payment initiative.
• Tesla (TSLA) gained 1.6%, with excitement building over its robotaxi unveiling event in Texas later this year.
• GMS Inc. (GMS) popped 29% after reports surfaced that Home Depot is preparing a takeover bid.
• Coinbase (COIN) is up about 2.2%, thanks to renewed momentum in the crypto market.

Stocks losing ground

• Accenture (ACN) slid 3.7% on weaker-than-expected bookings guidance, signaling slowing enterprise demand.
• Smith & Wesson (SWHC) dropped a steep 13% following a quarterly earnings miss.
• Regencell Bioscience (RGC) tumbled almost 19.5% as investors reacted to disappointing clinical updates.

How are oil and gold prices reacting to market uncertainty?

Oil cools down after earlier spike

Oil markets are still feeling the aftershocks of this week’s geopolitical headlines. Prices rose earlier in the week when Israeli airstrikes hit Iran, but today they’re easing slightly.

• Brent crude was last down nearly $2, trading at around $76.96 a barrel
• WTI crude is also trending lower but remains up roughly 3.8% for the week

Earlier in the week, Brent surged as high as $74.23 amid fears of escalating conflict, but the pullback suggests markets are hoping tensions won’t spiral further—for now.

Gold slips as risk appetite recovers slightly

Gold, often seen as a safe-haven investment, is also heading lower.

• Gold futures were down about 1.15% in early Friday trading
• The drop follows a two-week rally sparked by global uncertainty and a weaker dollar

Still, investors haven’t fully backed off gold yet. If geopolitical fears pick back up or the Fed surprises markets, gold could spike again.

What economic data and market trends should traders watch today?

Investors have several key things to keep their eye on as Friday trading gets underway.

1. The Philly Fed Index

The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing report will be released today. It’s a leading indicator of economic health and can offer clues about whether the economy is slowing or holding up.

2. Consumer Sentiment

Look for any updates in consumer behavior or retail data, which could hint at the strength of upcoming earnings for consumer-facing brands.

3. Interest rate speculation

Fed officials remain cautious about inflation, and today’s commentary from Fed speakers could shift expectations again. As of this morning, markets still lean toward a September rate cut, but nothing is guaranteed.

4. Tech and energy stock movement

Tech stocks are struggling this morning, weighed down by broader market tension. Meanwhile, energy stocks could swing based on oil’s path. Companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Occidental Petroleum may see volatility throughout the day.

What should investors watch today?

• Key economic data: Keep an eye on the Philly Fed manufacturing index and other leading indicators expected later today.
• Oil prices: Any flare-up in the Middle East could push crude sharply higher, impacting inflation forecasts and energy stocks.
• Gold: A further dip might signal reduced market fear — or strengthen the U.S. dollar’s trend.
• Earnings: Watch for more surprise moves from tech, industrials, and consumer stocks throughout the session.

Where does the U.S. stock market stand heading into the weekend?

The U.S. stock market futures are in a wait-and-watch mode. With the Fed not offering immediate relief, global conflicts brewing, and oil and gold reacting to every headline, there’s little room for complacency.

Investors should stay focused on key economic reports, earnings announcements, and geopolitical developments. As we close out the week, sentiment appears cautious—but not panicked. A lot depends on how the next 24 to 48 hours unfold in the Middle East and Washington.