US Fed rate cut bets revived, a bit, by Iran war ceasefire

Published Thu, Apr 9, 2026 · 06:26 AM

FEDERAL Reserve policymakers may consider cutting interest rates later this year now that an agreement for a two-week ceasefire in the Iran conflict has eased concerns about a resurgence of inflation, but with uncertainty over the outlook for peace and oil prices still some 30 per cent above their prewar levels, monetary policy easing is far from a done deal.

That’s at least what traders were betting on Wednesday, as they digested the potential impact from a lasting settlement in the Middle East and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping.

Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon and an Iranian hit on a Saudi Arabian oil pipeline underscored uncertainty over the temporary truce, and minutes from the Fed‘s March meeting showed some central bankers felt a need to communicate openness to rate hikes should inflation stay high.

Data expected later this week will likely show consumer prices rose in March at a pace not seen since the 2022 height of the post-pandemic inflation that set off an aggressive round of Fed rate hikes.

Fed policymakers say a temporary spike in headline inflation would not merit a change to short-term interest rates. A longer-lasting war and sustained higher prices that could hurt household finances, however, could force a difficult choice between leaving rates high to deal with inflation or to focus on cushioning the economy by reducing rates.

With a US delegation headed to Pakistan for peace talks this weekend, traders were hedging their bets.

Interest-rate futures contracts currently reflect about a one-in-four chance of a US interest-rate cut by year-end. That’s down from about a 65 per cent chance of a rate cut priced immediately after the ceasefire, but also a big shift from before the ceasefire, when traders had built in some chance of a Fed rate hike.

“With conditions much less likely to pressure the Fed to hike this year, we think the market should be pricing in closer to one full cut in the US,” wrote Evercore ISI’s Krishna Guha.

Elsewhere in the world, the shift in central bank expectations after the ceasefire announcement was more pronounced, with traders scaling back what had been bets on multiple rate hikes by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, speaking on Wednesday, did not dwell on the ceasefire’s ramifications for rate policy.

Instead she told the St. George Area Chamber of Commerce in Utah that it was too early to know how the Iran war and higher oil prices would affect the economy because it depends on how long the conflict lasts.

“There’s a concern that maybe this will push inflation up: that’s our job, we’ll focus on that,” she said. “And there’s a concern that maybe the labour market isn’t as solid, but we’re not seeing that, we’re seeing it kind of settle at a good place.” REUTERS