US Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting: Check date, time and where to watch
US Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) two-day meeting scheduled for March 18-19 is underway. The US Fed is likely to avoid cutting rates due to global uncertainty, despite weaker US economic data.
Both, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) had shown a declining trend in February. Still, as Powell had indicated before, he will not be in a hurry to cut rates. Therefore, aside from the known issues, markets will focus on two factors at the March FOMC meeting: the dot plot and Powell’s press conference.
US Fed will also release the summary of economic projections along with the ‘dot plot’ on March 19. The dot plot reflects how Fed officials have been thinking about rate cuts in the future. The dot plot represents Fed officials’ policy forecasts, and investors will be eager to know the number of rate cuts that the US Fed expects in 2025.
Looking at the economic data around inflation and the job market, the US Fed is not expected to cut the rate on March 19. However, President Trump’s spending cuts and trade protectionist policies are negatively impacting growth prospects and may prompt the central bank to intervene in the latter half of 2025. So, markets are not ruling out rate cuts in H2 2025.
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The job market may see some more lay-offs not just for Federal government workers, but also potentially amongst millions of private sector contractors employed in the government sector. Tariffs, potentially escalating as Trump brings manufacturing in-shore, raise consumer spending concerns and corporate fears of increased input costs squeezing profit margins. The US economy is reportedly being impacted by Trump’s tariffs, leading to speculation of a recession.
Reciprocal tariffs, effective April 2, may put US exporters under further challenges thus impacting their profits and margins.
Quasar Elizundia, Expert Research Strategist at Pepperstone says, “Currently, the market anticipates up to three rate cuts in 2025, contrasting with the single adjustment suggested by the Fed in December.”
Nomura expects rates likely to remain on hold at the March FOMC meeting as the Fed remains patient amid growing uncertainty. “The median rate projections in the dot plot are likely to remain unchanged through 2027, with the Fed still signaling two cuts in 2025,” adds Elizundia.
The decision by the US Fed chair Jerome Powell will be announced at 2 pm ET or 11.30 pm IST on March 19 when the summary of economic projections will also be released. The FOMC meeting of March can be watched on the Official YouTube channel of the Federal Reserve.
All eyes will be on Powell’s press conference which is expected to highlight uncertainty and the potential inflationary pressure in the economy, if any, from the new tariff policies.