US Market Outlook: Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite indicate a bearish trend reversal
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite index fell sharply last week. The Dow and S&P 500 were down 1.9 per cent each while the NASDAQ Composite fell 2.7 per cent. The price action last week clearly indicates that the uptrend in the US benchmark indices is getting reversed and the outlook is turning bearish. As such we can expect the US markets to fall more in the coming weeks.
Dow Jones (46,245.41)
The fall below 46,500 last week strengthens the bearish case to see more fall. Resistance is in the 46,600-46,700 region which can cap the upside now. As long as the index remains below 46,700, the bias will remain negative. It will keep the Dow vulnerable to break the support at 45,700 and fall to 45,000-44,800 in the coming weeks. This 45,000-44,800 is a strong support zone from where the Dow can bounce back again.
A break above 46,700 and a subsequent rise above 47,250 is needed to turn the sentiment positive.
S&P 500 (6,602.98)
A crucial support is at 6,500 which is holding well for now. The bias is negative to break this support. Such a break can trigger a sharp fall and drag the S&P 500 index down to 6,350-6,300 in the coming weeks.
Near-term resistance is in the 6,650-6,700 region. Above that, 6,800 is the next strong resistance. The index has to rise above 6,800 to bring back the bullish sentiment into the market. But as seen in the chart, we can expect the upside to be capped at 6,700 itself in the coming days.
NASDAQ Composite (22,273.08)
The fall below 22,500 indicates a bearish trend reversal. The region between 22,500 and 23,000 is a strong resistance zone now. Intermediate support is around 21,980. The chances are high for the NASDAQ Composite index to break this support. Such a break can trigger a fresh fall to 21,000-20,800 in the coming weeks.
To avoid this fall, the index has to see a sustained rise above 23,000. That looks less likely as fresh sellers are likely to come into the market and cap the upside.
Dollar Index (DXY) Outlook
The dollar index (DXY) (100.18) has risen breaking above its resistance at 99.80 as expected. That keeps the outlook bullish for the DXY. Immediate support is at 99.90. Below that 99.65 is the next important support.
The dollar index (DXY) can rise to 100.80 initially. A break above 100.80 can then take the index higher to 101.20 and even 101.80 thereafter.
The EURUSD (1.1510) pair is coming down failing to sustain above 1.16. The outlook is negative. the EURUSD pair can fall to 1.1420-1.14 this week. This can aid the DXY to rise going forward.
Treasury Yields
The US 10Yr Treasury Yield (4.06 per cent) turned volatile towards the end of the week. The yield fell sharply from the high of 4.16 per cent. Failure to bounce back immediately can take the yield down to 4 per cent this week. A break below 4 per cent can then drag the 10Yr Yield down to 3.9-3.85 per cent in the coming weeks.
On the other hand, a bounce from here can take the yield up to 4.1-4.15 per cent again. Resistance is in the 4.15-4.2 per cent region. A decisive break above 4.2 per cent is needed to strengthen the bullish case for a rise to 4.35-4.4 per cent.
Data Watch
The government shutdown that came to an end earlier this month has cleared the way for the economic data releases in the US.
The jobs data for September was released last week. The release was delayed due to the government shut down. The US added 119,000 jobs to its non-farm payroll in September. This was higher than an increase of 50,000 jobs expected by the market. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4 per cent.
For the coming week, the retail sales number will be released on Tuesday. This will be followed by the much important Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the US Federal Reserve’s inflation gauge will be released on Wednesday.
Published on November 22, 2025