US stock market futures today: Why Dow Jones is down while S&P 500, Nasdaq edge higher — Nvidia stock breaks out again, here’s top gainer for today

US stock market futures traded mixed early Wednesday. Dow Jones futures slipped 33 points or 0.07%, while S&P 500 futures were flat and Nasdaq 100 futures edged up 0.02%.

Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later today. Markets are pricing in a 99.5% probability of a quarter-point rate cut, which would bring the target range to 3.75%–4.00%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

President Donald Trump’s renewed optimism on China trade and remarks about easing tariffs added support to tech sentiment, especially Nvidia, which saw another lift.
The S&P 500 climbed 0.2% Tuesday, reaching a record intraday level above 6,900, nearing the 7,000 milestone. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 162 points (0.3%), while the Nasdaq Composite surged 0.8%, driven by megacap tech stocks.

However, analysts warn that valuations remain elevated and risks persist due to the ongoing government shutdown.

Despite that, optimism remains strong through the year-end, according to Lauren Goodwin of New York Life Investments.Markets were buoyed by signs of thawing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. President Trump is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea this Friday, signaling renewed global engagement. Trump hinted at lowering tariffs on Chinese goods, including fentanyl and rare earths, and said he plans to discuss Nvidia’s Blackwell chip ban with Xi.

According to Thierry Wizman of Macquarie Group, this shift reduces tariff fears and could support a more dovish Fed stance due to lower inflation expectations.

Investor attention now turns to Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Alphabet (GOOGL) reporting results Wednesday evening.

Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) follow on Thursday.

In extended trading, Visa (V) gained 1% after beating quarterly expectations with $2.98 EPS on $10.72 billion revenue.

Seagate (STX) jumped over 4% after strong earnings, while Bloom Energy (BE) spiked on upbeat results.

Nvidia continues to dominate the AI rally, with its market cap nearing $5 trillion after new product launches at GTC 2025.

Broadcom (AVGO) also broke out, climbing 3% to $327.97, clearing a key technical buy point.

The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 bps rate cut at 2 p.m. ET, with markets watching whether Jerome Powell signals more cuts in December.

With Microsoft, Meta, and Google results due tonight, followed by Apple and Amazon, the next 48 hours could be pivotal for the AI-driven market rally.

Any disappointment from these tech leaders could trigger a pullback after weeks of record highs.

For now, investors remain cautious but engaged, keeping watchlists ready and managing risk ahead of Friday’s Trump-Xi meeting, which could finalize a trade truce.

Top Gainers (Winners)

• Nvidia (NVDA) — +5%; nearing $5 trillion market cap after new product launches and Trump-Xi optimism.
• Broadcom (AVGO) — +3%; broke out to $327.97, clearing key buy point.
• SoFi Technologies (SOFI) — +5.6%; jumped to $31.67 after strong earnings and guidance.
• Seagate Technology (STX) — +4%; beat expectations with $2.61 EPS on $2.63B revenue.
• Visa (V) — +1%; topped estimates with $2.98 EPS on $10.72B revenue.
• Bloom Energy (BE) — spiked; surged after earnings solidly beat expectations.
• Tesla (TSLA) — +1.8%; moving toward $470.75 buy point.
• Wayfair (W) — gapped up on positive news/earnings.
• Celestica (CLS) — gapped up on earnings.
• Cameco (CCJ) — gapped up on news.
• ATI Inc. (ATI) — gapped up on earnings/news.

Top Losers (Decliners)

• ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) — -1%.
• ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) — -2.3%.
• Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) — -1%.
• Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) — -0.6%.
• Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) — -0.7%.
• Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) — -0.6%.
• Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) — -0.9%.
• Small-cap Russell 2000 Index — -0.5%.

Trump’s optimism boosts trade sentiment

President Donald Trump sounded upbeat about ongoing US–China trade talks, saying he expects a “great meeting” with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week in South Korea.

Trump said he plans to discuss Nvidia’s Blackwell chip ban and could cut fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese goods, currently at 20%, as part of a broader trade deal covering rare earths.

Analysts say the thaw in trade tensions has supported markets.

“The market is seeing President Trump re-engaging with the rest of the world again,” said Thierry Wizman, strategist at Macquarie Group. “The prospect of higher tariffs, especially on China, has diminished, which also supports a dovish Fed outlook.”

Earnings watch: Big Tech on deck

The “Magnificent Seven” are dominating earnings week.

Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), and Alphabet (GOOGL) will report after the close Wednesday.
Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) follow on Thursday.

Investors expect the tech giants to show strong spending on AI and data centers, but any miss could trigger volatility.

Meanwhile, Visa (V) reported Q4 earnings of $2.98 per share on $10.72 billion revenue, topping estimates.

Seagate Technology (STX) gained 4% after posting $2.61 EPS on $2.63 billion revenue, beating expectations.
Bloom Energy (BE) also surged after strong results.

Nvidia, Broadcom, Tesla lead market gains

The market rally remains powered by AI-linked giants.

Nvidia stock jumped 5% Tuesday to $201.03, nearing a $5 trillion valuation, after new product reveals at its GTC 2025 event.

Broadcom (AVGO) rose 3% to $327.97, clearing a $363.24 buy point.

Tesla (TSLA) gained 1.8% to $460.60, close to a $470.75 handle breakout.

SoFi (SOFI) climbed 5.6% to $31.67 after beating earnings.

Market breadth narrows

Despite record highs, the rally remains concentrated.

The Dow rose 0.3%, S&P 500 added 0.2%, and the Nasdaq jumped 0.8% on Tuesday.

However, the Russell 2000 slipped 0.5%, and the Equal Weight S&P ETF (RSP) fell 0.9%.

Energy and industrial ETFs also lagged.

US crude oil prices dropped 1.9% to $60.15 per barrel, while the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 3.98%.

Investor outlook: caution into the Fed

Strategists warn traders not to get too aggressive.

“The avalanche of news this week—Fed, tech earnings, Trump–Xi—means volatility could spike,” said Lauren Goodwin, chief market strategist at New York Life Investments.

Investors are advised to stay flexible, monitor watchlists, and prepare to adjust exposure quickly. With markets near all-time highs, even minor disappointments could spark sharp pullbacks.

What’s next

• 2 p.m. ET Wednesday: Fed rate announcement
• After hours: Earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet
• Thursday: Apple and Amazon results
• Friday: Trump–Xi meeting in South Korea

Markets expect at least a trade truce from the Trump–Xi talks—an outcome that could extend the record-breaking rally into year-end.