US stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq advance despite US-China trade tensions — top gainers Nvidia, TSMC, Salesforce, and big banks lift Wall Street

US stock market today, October 16, 2025, surged as strong earnings from major banks and technology firms drove Wall Street gains despite escalating US-China trade tensions. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 100 points (0.2%) in Thursday trading.

Investors focused on corporate earnings that outperformed expectations, especially in AI-driven technology and financial sectors.

Nvidia (NVDA) climbed nearly 2%, while Broadcom (AVGO) jumped 3% after TSMC raised its 2025 revenue guidance to mid-30% growth and reported a 39% surge in third-quarter profit. Analysts from Morgan Stanley, Barclays, and Bank of America raised price targets for TSMC, citing AI chip demand as a key growth driver.
Micron Technology (MU) gained 3.5%, boosted by a bullish call from UBS. Salesforce (CRM) rose 4%, the best-performing Dow component, after projecting more than $60 billion in revenue by 2030.

Transportation stocks also contributed to market strength. J.B. Hunt (JBHT) soared over 22%, its best day since 1998, after reporting Q3 earnings of $1.76 per share on revenue of $3.05 billion, topping analyst estimates. Schneider National, Old Dominion, and Saia also moved higher, lifting the Dow Transportation Index.

Despite these gains, volatility remains elevated. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) hovered near 20, reflecting investor caution amid Trump’s threats of new 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and the ongoing third-week US government shutdown, which has delayed key economic data. Federal Reserve signals also shaped sentiment. Governor Christopher Waller supported a quarter-point rate cut later this month but urged caution, highlighting mixed economic signals: strong GDP growth but soft labor market conditions. Market analysts caution that the rally is concentrated in a few key AI and tech stocks. LPL Financial’s Adam Turnquist warned of elevated concentration risk, urging broader participation to sustain gains.

With major indexes climbing steadily, analysts suggest that the current environment favors tech-driven investments, particularly in AI-related semiconductors and software, as global demand for technology continues to rise.

Major indices today

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): up 0.23%, showing steady growth amid tech stock gains.
• S&P 500: up 0.3%, boosted by strong corporate earnings and AI sector optimism.
• Nasdaq Composite: up 0.54%, led by AI and semiconductor-related technology stocks.

Top gainers today

Nvidia (NVDA) — Shares rose nearly 2% after TSMC’s strong results and higher revenue guidance boosted optimism about AI chip demand. Nvidia remains a key beneficiary of the ongoing artificial intelligence boom and continues to anchor investor confidence in the semiconductor space.

Broadcom (AVGO) — The stock climbed about 3% in Thursday trading. The gain followed Taiwan Semiconductor’s upgraded outlook for 2025 revenue growth and commitment to up to $42 billion in capital expenditures, which reinforced expectations of strong chip demand.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) — The world’s top contract chipmaker surged after reporting a 39.1% jump in third-quarter profit year-over-year and raising its 2025 revenue growth outlook to the mid-30% range from roughly 30%. TSMC also announced plans for record capital investment, confirming that AI demand continues to soar. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, Barclays, and Bank of America all lifted their price targets, with Bank of America setting a new target of $58.80 per share.

Micron Technology (MU) — Shares advanced about 3.5% following a bullish call from UBS, which cited a stronger AI-driven demand outlook for memory chips. Micron has benefited from renewed enthusiasm in the semiconductor cycle and broader AI infrastructure growth.

Salesforce (CRM) — The stock jumped 4%, making it the top performer among Dow components. The rally came after Salesforce issued better-than-expected long-term targets, projecting more than $60 billion in revenue by 2030, signaling sustained demand for enterprise software and cloud services.

J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) — Shares soared more than 22%, marking their best day since January 1998. The trucking and logistics company reported third-quarter earnings of $1.76 per share on $3.05 billion in revenue, topping Wall Street estimates of $1.46 per share and $3.03 billion, respectively. Operating income from its intermodal segment rose 12%, thanks to network efficiency improvements.

Schneider National (SNDR), Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), and Saia Inc. (SAIA) — All traded higher in sympathy with J.B. Hunt’s results as transportation stocks rallied broadly. The Dow Transportation Index rose on the day, supported by these gains.

Oracle (ORCL) — The stock rose 1.34% to $307.69 in morning trading, rebounding after a recent pullback. Analysts said the market may be undervaluing OpenAI-related revenue potential, suggesting that Oracle could still have upside from its large AI cloud backlog.

Top losers today

• United Airlines (UAL): down -2.1%, pressured by weaker-than-expected travel demand.
• Boeing (BA): down -1.8%, impacted by production delays and global airline concerns.
• Coca-Cola (KO): down -1.3%, affected by soft quarterly sales growth.
• Pfizer (PFE): down -1.2%, due to lower-than-expected drug revenue guidance.
• Walmart (WMT): down -1.0%, pressured by cautious consumer spending and inflation concerns.
• Exxon Mobil (XOM): down -0.9%, following minor declines in oil prices.
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): down -0.8%, amid market rotation from defensive stocks to tech gains.

AI Stocks Surge After TSMC Boosts Outlook

Wall Street turned more bullish on TSMC following its earnings. The world’s largest contract chipmaker raised its full-year revenue outlook and reiterated plans to invest up to $42 billion in capital expenditures by year-end.

• Morgan Stanley’s Charlie Chan lifted the price target to $55.15, citing the start of a “Moore’s Law 2.0 era” focused on energy efficiency.
• Barclays’ Simon Coles reaffirmed an “overweight” rating, expecting strong AI-driven demand through 2026.
• Bank of America’s Mike Yang raised his price target to $58.80, calling TSMC’s position “unrivaled amid the megatrend of AI growth.”

Shares of Micron (MU) and Salesforce (CRM) also rallied, rising 3.5% and 4%, respectively, after strong forecasts and analyst upgrades.

Bank Earnings Lift Confidence Despite Trade and Shutdown Worries

Positive results from Wall Street banks helped offset macro concerns. Investors saw fresh signs of corporate resilience even as US-China trade frictions and a prolonged government shutdown weighed on sentiment.

President Donald Trump reignited tensions earlier this week by threatening new 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and a potential ban on cooking oil imports from China. The trade tone has fluctuated, keeping markets volatile.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” hovered around 20, signaling cautious optimism.

Meanwhile, the ongoing US government shutdown—now in its third week—has delayed key economic data releases, clouding visibility on inflation, employment, and growth trends.

Trucking and Transportation Stocks Also Rally

Outside of tech, J.B. Hunt (JBHT) soared more than 22%, marking its best day since 1998, after reporting Q3 earnings of $1.76 per share on $3.05 billion in revenue, topping analyst estimates.

Operating income from its intermodal segment rose 12%, driven by network efficiency gains. The news lifted other trucking firms, including Schneider National (SNDR) and Old Dominion (ODFL), and boosted the Dow Transportation Index.

Fed Rate Cut Bets Grow as Waller Signals Caution

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, a leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell in 2026, said he favors another quarter-point rate cut later this month—but warned that further easing should be cautious.

Waller highlighted conflicting signals: solid GDP growth but a soft labor market. “Something’s gotta give,” he said in New York. “Either growth softens to match jobs, or employment rebounds to match growth.”

His comments reinforced investor expectations that the Fed may cut rates once more in 2025 before pausing to assess economic conditions.

Market Outlook: AI Euphoria vs. Concentration Risk

Despite strong earnings, analysts caution that Wall Street’s rally is heavily concentrated in a few dominant AI names.

“Emerging cracks in the market’s foundation show elevated concentration risk,” said Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist at LPL Financial. Broader participation, he added, is needed to sustain the uptrend.

Still, the AI-driven optimism, resilient earnings, and potential Fed cuts continue to support risk appetite heading into the final quarter of 2025.