US strikes on nuke sites send Israel-Iran conflict into ‘decisive phase’, say experts

Experts warned that if Tehran chooses to close the Strait of Hormuz — the critical oil corridor connecting the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea — in retaliation to the US strikes, the global economy as well as the Indian economy would be severely impacted.

New Delhi: The Israel-Iran conflict has entered a “decisive phase” after the US bombed three major Iranian nuclear sites Sunday morning, feel strategic affairs experts with some of them arguing it was Washington’s “responsibility” to not get involved in the military standoff.

The US attacked Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan, bringing itself into the Israel-Iran conflict. Later, US President Donald Trump said the Iranian nuclear sites were “totally obliterated”.

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Former diplomat and author Rajiv Dogra criticised the US move and said only time will tell whether there has been a “radiation leak or if that has been contained in one way or the other” after the strikes.

Some experts underlined the old civilisational ties between India and Iran to say the bilateral relations will “suffer in the process” as the Iran-Israel confrontation has intensified with the US involvement.

They warned that if Tehran chooses to close the Strait of Hormuz — the critical oil corridor connecting the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea — in retaliation to the US strikes, the global economy as well as the Indian economy would be severely impacted.

“Iran naturally will look at all options that are available to it. Closing the

Strait of Hormuz or attacking shipping going through it are the options that seem it (Iran) might exercise,” Dogra conjectured.

If it does that, naturally all countries getting oil from the Gulf nations through the strait would get affected, in terms of supplies and eventually soaring oil prices, he said.

“So, it will be naturally hurtful for the world economy and the Indian economy. Besides our industries, even the common people who depend on petrol for vehicles will get affected,” the former diplomat told PTI.

He said the US has simply played the role of a “spoiler”.

“Even if there was a chance for things to deescalate, the US strikes have made sure that things would not deescalate quickly. As almost a sole superpower still, it was its responsibility that it should not have got into the act,” he said.

Dogra said the US could have played the role of “stabiliser” in a situation which is already quite serious. Immediate resolution of this conflict doesn’t seem likely now, he argued.

The former diplomat said that once the nuclear facilities of a country are damaged in attack, then “all bets are off”.

“Because there are international regulations which forbid escalation to the extent that nuclear site is attacked. Radiation leaks can affect many many people and many many generations. Not just in the country where it is attacked but also in nearby nations.” Another former diplomat and strategic expert Dilip Sinha said, “The war has now entered a decisive phase.”

“Israel had already gained air superiority over Iran. Now America is getting involved and it is causing such a heavy devastation to the nuclear installations of Iran,” he added.

Iran’s capacity to retaliate is “considerably reduced” now, Sinha said. He also echoed Dogra’s views on the possibility of closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its ramifications, economic and otherwise, for India and other countries importing oil from the Gulf region.

He argued that if the critical corridor is closed, not just the supply will be impacted but oil prices will also go up.
Israel launched a military action under Operation Rising Lion against Iran on June 13, targeting nuclear facilities. Iran has since then responded by firing missiles at Israel.

“There is a fear of regional conflagration. But I don’t see that happening because not too many countries have come out in support of Israel yet,” he added.

Sinha also conjectured that it is possible for Iran to block the narrow Strait of Hormuz after the US strikes. If that happens, “India will be affected, and overall the price of oil will go up”, he said.

The conflict certainly presents a challenge to India which has had closer relations with Iran, the former diplomat said, adding that India wants to have good relations with Iran, for historical, civilisational and geostrategic reasons as well.

Amid fears of radiation leak, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) posted on X on Sunday, “Following attacks on three nuclear sites in Iran – including Fordow – the IAEA can confirm that no increase in off-site radiation levels has been reported as of this time. IAEA will provide further assessments on the situation in Iran as more information becomes available.”

Lt Gen Kanwaljeet Singh Dhillon (retd) in an interaction with PTI Videos in Mohali said the attack on the three sites has been done with “specialised weapons that can hit deep within the ground to destroy nuclear facilities”.

Asked how long the two sides can sustain the conflict, he said if they fire missiles at each other and fight a conventional war, they can sustain longer.

“But with the advent of precision weapons, Israel can hit inside a building. Attrition on Iran’s side is higher than on the Israeli side and their military capabilities have been degraded,” the retired army officer said.

On the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, he claimed that if it continues for a few days, it would “not have an immediate impact on the demand-supply chain” but would affect the stock markets.

Experts also referred to a meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) underway in Turkiye, in the backdrop of the conflict. “Islamic countries are a house divided,” Dogra argued.

Asked if New Delhi can play some role in contributing to de-escalation in the region, he said, “India is friendly both with Israel and Iran, and its voice counts. It can definitely play a role in cooling down the tension and not let the crisis escalate further.”

Israel on June 13 targeted Iran’s nuclear and missile production and storage facilities to get rid of both. It has for years been calling Iran’s nuclear programme an existential threat and has vowed to foil its nuclear ambition at any cost.

Iran has maintained that its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes.