Wall Street is bracing for a grim first-quarter delivery report from Tesla

Wall Street is bracing for a tough vehicle-delivery report from Tesla next week.

Analysts have been eyeing the potential for first-quarter delivery figures to be weak for some time as sales data sours and as the brand has become the focal point of political debate in the early months of the Trump presidency.

Analysts have been trimming their sales expectations and slashing price targets for the stock, and even enduringly bullish forecasters are expecting pain to come.

Signs of weak demand have sparked nervousness among investors this year. Tesla’s sales in Europe plunged by 42% over the first two months of 2025, and sales in China fell nearly 50% in February, while local rival BYD saw sales soar.

Tom Narayan, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said he’s expecting lower-than-consensus deliveries from Tesla in the first quarter. In a note on Friday, he said the car company was on track to deliver 364,000 vehicles, down from the average estimate of 398,000. He also estimated deliveries would be down 19% for the quarter in Europe, and 40%-45% for the quarter in China, a key market for Tesla.

Sales in January and February were likely impacted by Tesla preparing to release its refreshed Model Y, Narayan said.

“We also expect there was some demand delay given that the vehicle as well as the new affordable model coming in Q2/25,” he added. Naryan reiterated his “outperform” rating for the stock, though he had slashed his price target last week from $440 a share to $320 a share.

Others are more downbeat.

In a note on Friday, Deutsche Bank analysts said they were eyeing a “major reset” of expectations for Tesla for 2025 and 2026. For the year, the bank expects deliveries to fall 5% to around 1.7 million, assuming that Tesla begins to roll out its low-cost model in the US, Europe, and China later this year.

“Our view is that Tesla’s stock has been under pressure recently driven by much weaker auto volumes, broader de-rating in growth assets (e.g., Mag 7), and to some extent, political/policy uncertainty,” the bank said.

Analysts reiterated their “buy” rating for the stock but trimmed their price target to $345 a share, down from $420 a share.

Deutsche Bank also said the damage to the Tesla brand from Elon Musk’s politics is a reason the company has been under pressure.

On Friday, meanwhile, HSBC also cut its price target for the stock. The bank slashed its target from $165 per share to $130, implying a 50% drop from Friday’s levels.

Protests have hit Tesla dealers around the country and the used car market has been flooded with Teslas since Musk embarked on his cost-cutting crusade with the Department of Government Efficiency.

“On the negative side, pushback from Musk’s foray into politics and DOGE has raised issues of brand damage and even vandalism, supply is impacted by the new Model Y changeover, demand is weak in the US and Europe, and Chinese competition continues to heat up,” analysts from William Blair wrote in a note.

The firm cut its delivery estimates for the quarter from 418,000 to 350,000 and reduced its estimates for the year from 1.94 million to 1.68 million.

Even some of the company’s staunchest bulls are bracing themselves ahead of next week’s report.

Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, wrote in a note that Musk’s involvement in the Department of Government Efficiency is taking Tesla through a “very stormy” period.

He anticipates Tesla’s deliveries announcement to be a “rip the band-aid off” event for the stock, with deliveries potentially coming in as low as 355,000, he estimated.

Ives reiterated his “outperform” rating for the stock and $550 price target, which implies 52% upside from current levels.

“This continues to be a moment of truth for Musk to navigate this brand tornado crisis moment and get onto the other side of this dark chapter for Tesla with much better days ahead we see for the story,” Ives said. “However, we believe 1Q will be the low point and the Street is starting to look through these numbers to better understand the delivery trajectory the rest of the year with a much stronger 2H the key as model refreshes are around the corner.”

Tesla stock fell 2% Friday afternoon to $267.02. The stock is down 30% year-to-date.