Wall Street’s Biggest Bond Bear Sees US 10-Year Yield Topping 5%

One of the biggest bond bears on Wall Street is having a good start to the year as US Treasury yields edge toward his deeply contrarian forecast.

Padhraic Garvey, head of global debt and rates strategy at ING Groep NV, sees 10-year US Treasury yields trading around 5.5% toward the end of 2025, from about 4.63% on Monday. Among 51 year-end forecasts compiled by Bloomberg, only three are for increases from current levels, and ING’s call is about 40 basis points higher than the second-most bearish one.