Walmart's stock looks like it's in trouble. What the chart says may come next.

By Tomi Kilgore

The stock has suffered its longest losing streak in years, and just fell below a closely watched chart level, but there’s still no technical reason for bulls to worry – yet

Shares of Walmart Inc. are having a tough time, as they are suffering through their longest losing streak in nearly seven years, which may make some investors question whether the long-term stretch of outperformance may be on its last legs.

Other than some concern raised Thursday that a Walmart heiress’s anti-Trump comments may lead to boycotts of some of the discount retail behemoth’s stores, there has been little fundamental reason for the stock’s recent weakness, which has come despite a rally in the broader stock market. Walmart Chief Financial Officer John Rainey said earlier this week that recent consumer behavior has been “very consistent” with that of previous quarters.

And, as far as the stock chart goes, there’s still little reason to think the bullish outlook has changed.

Walmart’s stock (WMT) fell 1% on Thursday to close at $94.83. It has dropped 5.2% amid a seven-day losing streak, which is the longest such streak since the seven-day stretch that ended Nov. 20, 2018, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Over the past seven trading sessions, the S&P 500 index SPX has gained 1.3%.

With the stock down 0.5% in premarket trading on Friday, it was now in danger of the longest losing streak since the eight-day streak that ended Jan. 27, 2014.

The selloff has taken Walmart’s stock below its 50-day moving average, which many Wall Street chart watchers view as a short-term trend tracker, for the first time in two months. The 50-DMA was at $95.20 at Thursday’s closing price.

That’s certainly not a good sign for the stock, at least for the short term. It is now trading around the same prices seen in early December, before the spike to start 2025 that took it to a record close on Feb. 13.

But as Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, stressed, the stock remains above the 200-day moving average, which many view as a dividing line between longer-term uptrends and downtrends. And the 200-DMA continues to rise, which indicates the long-term trend is also still rising.

Wald said that suggests to him that the stock’s recent weakness is still just a pullback within a larger consolidation. And that consolidation comes after the stock rocketed 71.9% in 2024, its best yearly performance in 26 years. In comparison, the S&P 500 rose 23.3% in 2024.

Basically, Wald said, Walmart’s stock was very “overbought” at the end of 2024, a technical term used when a rally extends well past historical norms. The recent consolidation has effectively worked off that overbought condition.

With that in mind, Wald believes the stock is “more likely to break higher than lower” from current levels, he said.

The upside levels to watch start at around the $100-to-$101 level, which has capped rally attempts in early March and early May, and was where the latest losing streak started.

For the downside, the 200-DMA was just below $90 at Thursday’s close, and it has been rising by an average of about 12 cents a day over the past 10 sessions.

Wald noted that the stock had briefly closed below the 200-DMA in early April, but that was during a broad-market selloff triggered by the shock “liberation day” tariff announcement. Another close below the 200-DMA, during a calmer time for the broader market, may cause him to reconsider his positive view on stock.

-Tomi Kilgore

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06-13-25 0655ET

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