Warren Buffett Said Social Security Should Never Be Cut — Now Retirees Face Losing $18,000 A Year Unless Congress Moves Before The Clock Runs Out

Warren Buffett doesn’t toss around warnings lightly. But at the 2005 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, he made one of his most direct moral declarations: “Anything that would take Social Security payments below their present guaranteed level is a mistake.”

That warning is now colliding with the harsh math of 2025.

A new report from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projects that the Social Security trust fund will be insolvent by the end of 2032. When that happens, benefits must be slashed to match incoming payroll tax revenue. For over 60 million Americans, that means automatic and immediate cuts—up to 24% in the first year alone.

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A Cut of $18,100 for Retiring Couples

According to the CRFB’s July estimate, a dual-earning couple retiring in early 2033 would see a benefit cut of approximately $18,100 per year. Single-earner couples would lose around $13,600, while low-income dual-earner couples would see an $11,000 cut. Higher-income couples could lose as much as $24,000 annually.

The group warns these reductions would hit all retirees—regardless of income or state—unless Congress enacts structural reforms. Without action, the reductions would begin the moment the trust fund is depleted. The law requires Social Security to operate on a pay-as-you-go basis, so benefits can only be paid from incoming revenue.

The Social Security Trustees’ official 2025 report shows a slightly more optimistic timeline, with projected insolvency by 2033. But both timelines point to the same unavoidable outcome: if nothing changes, cuts are coming.

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Buffett’s Warning Wasn’t About Numbers — It Was About Trust

Buffett’s 2005 statement wasn’t tied to actuarial tables or funding ratios. It was a broader principle: don’t break promises to people who spent their lives paying into the system. Social Security, in his view, was a moral contract.

More than 40% of Americans aged 65 and older rely on Social Security for 90% or more of their income, according to data from the Social Security Administration. For those households, a 24% cut doesn’t mean a tighter budget—it means potential poverty.

Buffett has never endorsed cutting benefits. Instead, he’s advocated for lifting the payroll tax cap—currently at $168,600 in 2025—so high earners continue contributing on all income. He’s also supported raising the full retirement age gradually to reflect longer lifespans, while shielding low-income retirees from any benefit loss.

What’s Accelerating the Crisis?

Several forces are pushing the program toward its deadline faster than originally forecasted:

• Tax Policy Changes: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act expanded the senior standard deduction and lowered tax collections on benefits. This trimmed future revenue and shaved a full year off the expected solvency timeline, according to CRFB’s July analysis.
• Demographic Pressure: In 1960, there were 5.1 workers per Social Security recipient. Today, there are just 2.7. By 2035, the figure is expected to fall below 2.2.
• Cost-of-Living Adjustments: Inflation-linked benefit increases, while essential, further strain the system when paired with stagnant wage growth.

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The Clock Is Ticking

Social Security hasn’t seen a major structural overhaul since 1983, when lawmakers raised the full retirement age and began taxing a portion of benefits. While targeted changes were made in 2025—repealing the Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset for public-sector retirees—no broad reform has passed to address the growing gap between what the program pays out and what it collects. Meanwhile, life expectancy, benefit payouts, and the number of retirees have continued to surge.

Buffett’s warning, made 20 years ago, was a call to preserve guaranteed benefits. In 2025, it reads more like a headline ripped from today’s fiscal forecast.

For Americans nearing retirement—or already relying heavily on Social Security—consulting a financial advisor may help identify strategies to offset potential gaps. While Congress debates solutions, those approaching this cliff may not want to wait to explore their options.

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