Weighing the Fallout From Trump’s Looming Trade War

What a weekend of headlines, from tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico to Elon Musk getting inside the Treasury Department’s payment system. We have all of the details below — a cheat sheet of the whirlwind of changes that will probably affect the global economy and society. We also have lots of questions about what’s happening.

If the tariffs are a negotiating tool, how long will negotiations take — and how is President Trump measuring success? Moreover, how long will the American public be willing to suffer the “pain” that Trump acknowledged his tariffs will inflict? The Venn diagram of those is how much time and leverage Washington will, or won’t, have.

We also want to know whether Musk’s access to the Treasury payment system means that he is able to unilaterally end certain payments. And what kind of legal — and practical — recourse will individuals or organizations have to adjudicate these decisions?

“Will there be some pain? Yes, maybe (and maybe not!)”

One of Wall Street’s worst fears about the return of Donald Trump to the White House is poised to become reality: U.S. stock futures are down sharply on Monday, as are global markets, as huge tariffs against Canada, China and Mexico are set to take effect just after midnight Eastern.

Some still hope that the levies, which are expected to cover a third of American imports, or $1 trillion in goods a year, either won’t come to pass or won’t last long. But business leaders, economists and investors are wary that Trump’s open-ended goals mean they’ll be in force for a while, leading to a trade war that could have devastating effects on the American economy.

The latest: The three countries pledged retaliation, in what would be a quick escalation of a trade battle against three of America’s biggest trade partners. (Trump’s executive order authorizing the tariffs allows for Washington to ratchet up its levies if the targeted countries impose counter-tariffs.)