What Trump 2.0 means for polarised, war-ridden world order

It is hoped that under the leadership of Donald Trump, the United States will adopt a more pragmatic foreign policy. This will help Trump to resolve the war between Russia and Ukraine as well as the long-standing conflict in the West Asian region. At the same time, he will undertake strong measures against China if one sees his record during his first term as president. Trump will also try to improve ties with Russia. Similarly, India-United States relations will reach a new height during Trump’s presidency. Hopefully he will work towards creating a more equitable global order.

The expected victory of President-elect Donald Trump for the second term as President of the United States provides an opportunity to examine how he will be able to mend Washington’s foreign policy. The second question that arises here is whether he will move away from Biden’s foreign policy plank, which will contribute to the rapprochement between the US and Russia as well as bring an end to the Russia-Ukraine war and also ensure peace in West Asia.

Third, another important aspect that needs to be underlined here is how far the Trump administration will be able to address the global economic meltdown and climate governance issues more pragmatically. Finally, there is a need to underline how, under the Trump administration, a new chapter in India-US relations will be opened up. Some of the above-mentioned issues will provide an in-depth understanding of Trump’s role in strategising the US foreign policy goals.

Russia-Ukraine War

President-elect Trump, in his victory speech soon after the presidential election result was announced, made it clear that he intends to resolve both the Russia-Ukraine war as well as the West Asian strategic impasse. One may recall here that Trump is a strong votary of limiting the role of NATO and, on a number of occasions, has also condemned the Biden administration’s policy towards Ukraine. In fact, before his election as President, Trump underlined the need to end the war, citing the fact that it was putting too much burden on the US exchequer, which was around to the tune of around $74 billion as per the data of the US Department of State’s report, “US Security Cooperation with Ukraine”. At the same time, he urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky not to prolong the war further.

Trump has also made similar suggestions to President Vladimir Putin, with whom he shares a good personal equation. Soon after the presidential election victory of Trump, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, in his congratulatory post on X, stated, “We agreed to maintain close dialogue and advance our cooperation”. But it is too early to comment on the fact that Trump will continue the policy of Biden.

Unlike Biden, Trump will adopt a more cautious policy towards the Russia-Ukraine war, considering the fact that he does want to annoy Russia. Though President Putin has not sent any congratulatory message to Trump, in his address at the Valdai Discussion Club on November 8, 2024 (after the declaration of the US presidential election result), Putin called Trump a “courageous man”. He further elaborated that “the person [Trump] displayed his qualities in extraordinary conditions. He behaved in a very proper way, courageously, as a real man”.

From the speech of the President, one can get a sense that he is looking towards constructive engagement with President Trump. Earlier, Kremlin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peshkov, just after the US presidential election result was announced in a message shared on Telegram, stated about resetting Russia-US relations. Peshkov underlined that “whether it will be done and how it will be done, you and I will see after January [Trump will assume office]”.

Looking at the present context, it can be stated that though the war will not end immediately after taking over President Trump’s office, he will attempt to resolve the war between Russia and Ukraine. Similarly, observation from Putin demonstrates his commitment to engage with Trump. This can be considered a step towards resolving all outstanding bilateral disputes between Russia and the US. At the same time, it can also potentially lead to the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine.

West Asian Geopolitical Cauldron

Trump will also make an attempt to bring peace to the tumultuous West Asian region. One may recall here that it was Trump, way back in 2019, who brought Iran and Saudi Arabia together, which resulted in the signing of the Abraham Accord. Though there was a lull in West Asia after Trump’s exit from office, this region again witnessed a flare-up of geopolitical cauldron when, in October 2023, the Hamas terrorist group launched an unprovoked war against Israel, thus bringing out further political instability in this part of the world. Slowly and steadily, the Israel and Hamas War has made its spillover impact on the West Asian region, thus accentuating an Iran-Israel war and redrawing the West Asian geopolitical map.

In this regard, one can add here that, as usual, the Biden administration, following the long-standing US West Asian policy, supported Israel. However, if one goes through some of the past tweets of Trump, he criticised the ad hoc policy being pursued by the Biden administration in resolving the dispute. In fact, in the month of August 2024, Trump advised Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “to get over with it fast. … Get your victory and get it over with. It has to stop; the killing has to stop”. He further stated, “He [Netanyahu] knows what he’s doing; I did encourage him to get this over with”. This suggestion on the part of Trump is contrary to Biden’s policy. Quoting US Vice President Kamala Harris and his rival in the presidential election, Trump stated, “From the start, Harris has worked to tie Israel’s hand behind its back, demanding an immediate ceasefire, always demanding ceasefire”. In this context, Trump stated, “I will give Israel the support that it needs to win, but I do want them to win fast”.

It is expected that Trump will pursue an aggressive policy towards Hezbollah, the terrorist group supported by Iran. There is a considerable opinion that Trump may force Hezbollah to return to a negotiation table. This will also push Hamas to enter into a deal with Israel. Along with the Abraham Accord, another major achievement of the Trump administration in the first term was that he recognised Israel’s stake over the Golan Heights, which, in fact, irked major Arab countries. It is also expected that Trump is going to take strong measures against Iran, and there is a likelihood that sanctions on Iran will further prolong. Despite his pro-Israel posture, Trump will make an attempt to stop the war. This can be underlined by his victory speech, where he stated, “I’m going to stop wars.”

Global Economic Meltdown and Climate Accord

Another moot question that needs to be underlined here is whether Trump can provide a new approach to the global economy. Trump already vowed to impose tariffs on imported products as part of his America First policy. This may have an impact on the global economy. This is more so in the context of the recession, which is hitting the global economy and the US’s domestic economy. One important point that needs to be examined is how Trump allows foreign investment into the US. Similarly, one has to look at how Trump is addressing the question of issues of climate finance, which will be the key concern. One may recall here that Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord led to a setback in the global fight against mitigating climate adversity. There is also speculation that he might propose to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord once again, as well as from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). However, Trump will adopt a more pragmatic approach to addressing the climatic concerns, and if the US stops funding the UNFCCC, this will also impact the functioning of this august body.

In fact, Trump’s approach to the global economy and climate finance is closely tied to his engagement with China.

China and the Taiwan Crisis

Trump’s engagement with China must be closely examined. This is more so in the context of the US’s position on Taiwan, along with the fueling of a trade war and competition to dominate global geopolitics. Chinese President Xi Jinping, in a message, welcomed Trump by stating that “a stable, healthy, and sustainable China-US relationship is in the common interest of both countries and is in line with the expectations of the international community”.

Tough Jinping expressed his optimism about maintaining steady relations with the US, but it is not too easy. There is growing speculation that to weaken the Chinese economy, the Trump administration may add more tariffs up to an extent of 60 per cent on products imported from China. Trump is doing this to boost the domestic economy.

In retaliation, China in the past has also imposed a 25 per cent increase in tariff on agricultural products imported from the US. The trade war between the US and China is expected to intensify under the new Trump administration. The most important consequence of the trade war will be that the US companies currently operating in China may move out. This may adversely affect US-China trade relations. Though both the US and China are the largest trading partners, it is largely skewed in favour of China.

However, during the first term of Trump’s presidency, a negotiation was reached between Washington and Beijing to end the trade war, but China never practiced the same to address the US’ grievances over the past couple of years. The Trump administration may also once again hunt China on the same issue, which may affect relations between the two countries.

The Taiwan question is another contentious issue that may put US-China relations under backfoot: the Taiwan crisis. It is a fact that Trump will take a strong stand on the Taiwan issue vis-à-vis China and may use it as a bargaining tool. In October 2024, the Biden administration, as reported, provided an air defence system worth $2 billion to Taiwan. However, the question arises whether the Trump administration will give de jure recognition to Taiwan.

Apprehensions are also being raised from many quarters regarding the question of transfer of technology with regards to chips and semiconductors, as Trump accused Taiwan in the past of the question of transfer of technology. Similarly, apprehensions are raised from many quarters about whether Trump will provide the necessary security to Taiwan, as he raised the issue of “fees”. However, one expects Trump will reconsider his view on Taiwan after assuming office, considering larger geopolitical implications, including the looming China threat.

Quad and Indo-Pacific Security Structure

The Trump administration will also give priority to greater security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific security structure. During his first term, Trump also gave priority to the Indo-Pacific region as a major balancer of global stability. In this context, the escalation of conflict between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea region is going to be another major challenge for the Trump administration. This is because of persistent challenges from China. In this context, to contain the expansionist tendencies of China, it is expected that the Trump administration will give priority to the strategic Quad. The Trump administration will also prioritise greater engagement with Southeast Asia and Central Asia as part of a strategy to “encircle” China.

Similarly, it is believed that President Trump will provide support to the de jure Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina’s, return to power. In fact, this will correct the mistakes carried out by the Biden administration by deposing her from the prime minister’s position. This, in fact, pushed Bangladesh into a crisis-like situation. In fact, he will support Hassina to bring stability to Bangladesh. In a way, it will also give justice to the minority Hindu community who are being persecuted in the aftermath of the removal of Hassina from power. This, in fact, can contribute to the geopolitical stability of South Asia. Peace and stability in Bangladesh can also contribute to geopolitical stability in the Indo-Pacific in a broader context. Trump will also take measures to sanction the Justin Trudeau government, under whose leadership Canada is taking irrational steps.

India-US ties

It is believed that Trump will pursue a policy of greater engagement with India. This is because the Trump administration is going to balance Asian geopolitics by engaging with New Delhi. There is a likelihood of escalation of a trade war between the US and China. It is believed that most of the US industries located in China will move out to India. Hence, India is going to be the net beneficiary in case of a trade war between the US and China.

It may be noted that though the Trump administration may also impose tariffs on Indian products, they will be nominal in comparison to China. This is because Trump always considers India a preferred strategic trade partner. At the same time, under Trump’s leadership, India-US trade relations will further strengthen, and more areas of cooperation like semiconductors, chip production, artificial intelligence, renewable energy, climate change, and outer space cooperation will be considered.

Trump may also give priority to India in locating many of the American industries currently operating in China. One of the major factors that will guide Trump in terms of the US’ economic engagement with India is the emerging middle class as well as a stable market. At the same time, Trump may also seek India’s investment in the US economy to tide over the current recession. Similarly, on the immigration issues, Trump was quite vocal during his election campaign. However, it will not affect the Indian workforce working in the US because most of them are skilled.

In terms of strategic engagement, as discussed above, Trump will engage with India more pragmatically. This is more so in the context of the long-standing dispute between the US and China. Secondly, Trump understands India’s leadership role in the Global South. Hence, he will chart out a more constructive engagement with India, which will help the US win confidence among the Global South countries. It is a fact that there is widespread resentment towards the US, especially under the Biden administration, in the Global South countries. By taking India’s help, the US under Trump may normalise relations with the Global South countries.

At the same time, there is a high probability that a new form of strategic triangle will emerge in the near future involving India, Russia, and the US. Though it appears highly imaginative at present in view of the present state of relations between Russia and the US. If Trump is able to resolve the war between Russia and Ukraine, there is a high chance that such a triangle will emerge. This is because Prime Minister Modi, President Putin, and President-elect Trump share a workable personal equation. The same can be observable during the first phase of Trump’s presidency, where there was a greater degree of camaraderie spirit among the three leaders. Scholarly studies suggest geopolitics is a “dynamic concept”. Using the same analogy, one can underline here that the India-Russia-US strategic triangle is a viable proposition and can set the tone for a new and more equitable global order.

One major factor that provides much substance to India-US relations is the leadership quality of both Prime Minister Modi and President-elect Trump. The same can also be inferred from the personal chemistry shared by both. For instance, in his congratulatory message to Trump after his election victory posted in X, Prime Modi called him “my friend”. Prime Minister Modi further observed, “As you [Trump] build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership. Together, let’s work for the betterment of our people and to promote global peace, stability, and prosperity.” Similarly, Trump stated in his telephone conversation with Prime Minister Modi that “he considers him and India a true friend”.

It is expected that India and US relations will undergo a massive upsurge under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi and President Trump. This, in fact, will provide the necessary stability to the global order.

Conclusion

From the above analysis, it can be underlined here that the US foreign policy under the leadership of Trump will undergo a significant departure from the present Biden administration. This is because after holding office, Trump will pursue a more pragmatic policy, which will add more teething to the US foreign policy. For instance, he will move to resolve the Russia-Ukraine War and the West Asian conflict.

Trump will also give more primacy to promoting the geoeconomic interests of the US, and this may certainly aggravate the trade war with China. At the same time, to balance China, the Trump administration may seek closer relations with India. This may, to a great extent, stabilise the geopolitical equilibrium in both Indo-Pacific and Asian geopolitics. In the long run, this may also contribute to ushering in a new global order.

The author teaches at the School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.