What’s really going on with Social Security? Here’s what the latest numbers say

The 2025 Old Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trustees Report was released last month and showed little change from 2024. For Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI), or the “cash benefits” paid from Social Security, full scheduled benefits are only payable through 2033. After that, only 77% of benefits are projected to be paid. In other words, someone receiving $1,000 per month today would receive just $770 after 2033.

The good news: Disability Insurance benefits remain fully funded through at least 2099.

Medicare’s Hospital Insurance (HI, or Part A) trust fund is also expected to be depleted by 2033, after which only 89% of benefits would be payable. However, Medicare Parts B (outpatient care) and D (prescription drug coverage) are funded indefinitely through a combination of enrollee premiums and general revenue. In fact, 73% of total income for Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) comes from general revenues.

For FERS retirees, Social Security plays a critical role in supplementing their FERS basic benefit and Thrift Savings Plan income. In 2022, Social Security made up at least half of total personal income for 38.3 million Americans, or 63.2% of adult recipients, according to Census Bureau data. For 16.4 million people—27%—it was their only income source. For career federal employees under FERS, Social Security may represent about a third of total retirement income.

One of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s original goals was to “give some measure of protection to the average citizen … against poverty-ridden old age.” As of January 2025, the average monthly retirement benefit was $1,976—or $23,712 a year—roughly 150% of the federal poverty level in the lower 48 states.

About 75% of Social Security benefits go to retired workers, according to the Pew Research Center. The rest supports spouses and children of retirees, survivors of deceased workers, and people with disabilities. Here’s the breakdown:

Retirement Benefits

• Retired workers: 52.6 million (75.8%)
• Spouses: 2 million (2.8%)
• Children: 734,000 (1.1%)

Survivor Benefits

• Children of deceased workers: 2.1 million (3%)
• Widowed parents: 98,000 (0.1%)
• Nondisabled widow(er)s: 3.5 million (5%)
• Disabled widow(er)s: 193,000 (0.3%)
• Parents of deceased workers: 1,000 (<0.1%)

Disability Benefits

• Disabled workers: 7.2 million (10.3%)
• Spouses: 86,000 (0.1%)
• Children: 1 million (1.4%)

Total beneficiaries: 69.4 million

Despite widespread concern, benefits will not disappear in 2033. But unless Congress acts, reductions will be necessary. Looking back, major reforms were enacted in 1983 to address similar funding issues. Changes then included payroll tax increases, raising the full retirement age, and taxing some benefits for higher earners. Importantly, those reforms spared workers who were 46 or older at the time and gave younger workers time to prepare.

The same approach could work again: thoughtful, phased reforms that maintain the program’s core protections. Ideas on the table include lifting the payroll tax cap (currently $176,100), gradually raising the 6.2% FICA rate, or making more forms of compensation subject to payroll taxes—similar to how TSP contributions are treated.

The bottom line: Social Security remains the nation’s most effective income security program. Preserving it will require action, but the tools—and the precedent—already exist. A full list of reform options is available at ssa.gov/OACT/solvency.