What's the gold price forecast for fall 2025?

In an environment rife with uncertainty, gold has typically seen greater demand as a safe-haven asset. The precious metal can help buffer the impacts of inflation and can provide much-needed diversification to a portfolio. As of July 2025, inflation was up 2.7% year over year, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. That number is flat from the month prior, but an uptick from recent months. While inflation has cooled compared to its highs of several years ago, it’s still above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. 

Over the last few years, gold investing has surged in popularity, driving up demand and, in turn, prices. The price of gold has blown past several records, including the $3,400 per ounce mark. Currently, the gold price per ounce sits above $3,300 after starting the year around $2,600. 

But over the last few months, the cost of gold has softened. After an exceptional rise in value earlier this year and a more recent pullback, where are gold prices headed this fall? We spoke to three gold investing experts about their predictions on where the price of gold might be heading and what could lead it in that direction.

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What’s the gold price forecast for fall 2025?

The price of gold per ounce has pushed past previous records already this year, but will that climb continue? Here’s the gold price forecast for fall 2025:

The price of gold is currently in a holding pattern 

While the cost of gold steadily rose to unseen heights earlier this year, the rapid growth has cooled. There hasn’t been major movement lately, which can affect where prices may end up this fall. 

“I’m expecting gold to continue trading sideways until another catalyst emerges. Gold has been trading between $3180 and $3440 per ounce since April, briefly setting a new all-time high over $3,500 per ounce,” says Brett Elliott, director of marketing at American Precious Metals Exchange (APMEX). “The trading range is getting narrower and consolidating, but we need something to push it to the next leg.”

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Several factors may increase the price of gold this fall

Chris Mancini, associate portfolio manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund, notes that things may be unclear now, but that could change soon. 

“Since April, I think the market is really looking for direction,” says Mancini. “I think that what could take it [gold price] higher in the next few months from now to the end of the year, would be a view that the Fed is going to lower interest rates.”

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s most recent comments highlight the possibility of a rate cut as it deals with challenges navigating inflation and employment. The Fed has been cautious this year and so far has kept the federal funds rate unchanged. 

Projections from the CME Group’s FedWatch tool show that a rate cut could be likely. If that’s the case, that could kick off the next surge in the price of gold. Typically, lower interest rates can mean more demand for gold and potentially higher prices. 

Joshua Barone, wealth manager at Savvy Wealth, offers his gold price forecast stating, “Bull case, I would say $4,000-ish by the end of the year. That’s making assumptions that real rates fall, essentially Fed easing, dollar softness, and risk aversion kind of picks up, so we don’t get any breaks in the geopolitical tensions. If real rates start drifting down, plus central banks buying, that’s going to keep gold in that tailwind and prices moving upwards.”

Currently, J.P. Morgan Research anticipates that the gold price per ounce will come in at $3,675 by the end of the year and projects an increase to $4,000 per ounce by the second quarter of 2026. 

Another factor that could impact gold costs is if there’s a crisis or elevated geopolitical uncertainty. “If a crisis occurs this fall and it catches the attention of investors, we could witness a flight to gold again. Sudden surges in demand for gold usually lead to increases in the spot price, but the impact and duration depends on the crisis,” says Elliott.

Though gold is sought out during times of crisis as a safe-haven asset, there doesn’t need to be one necessarily for gold prices to go up. “Gold doesn’t need a crisis, it just needs cheaper real money,” Barone adds. 

Will gold costs drop in fall 2025? 

The experts we spoke to believe that gold prices will stay steady in the fall, with the potential to increase if certain conditions align. While a drop isn’t necessarily in the gold price forecast, some events could push prices down. 

“If the economy were to strengthen, the economy were to add jobs and inflation were to cool, I think that those are factors that could cause the price of gold to go down,” says Mancini. 

“Bear case is $3,200 by the end of the year and what’s behind that is inflation kind of stays sticky, the dollar firms, so we get a stronger dollar, and long yields kind of stay where they are, or rise, so you don’t have the Fed easing at all,” Barone adds.

The bottom line 

Looking ahead to fall 2025, gold seems to be holding steady for now and may rise if underlying factors drive up demand. If you’re looking to add a gold investment to your portfolio, consider your goals and liquidity needs. Physical gold bars and gold coins can be a solid store of value and you get full ownership. However, convertibility can be a challenge and you have to consider storage.   

Other gold investment types may be worth considering if you’re looking for accessibility without physical ownership. These include gold stocks, gold ETFs, gold futures, and gold IRAs. Before jumping in, gold investors should assess their personal goals and diversification needs. Gold has long been a store of value, but it’s key to have a strategy as well.