When will Social Security announce 2026 COLA increases? — Well, it depends

Every year the Social Security Administration calculates how inflation affects the cost of living and then adjusts benefits for the near 74 million Americans depending on those benefits to survive.

This calculation is crucial for Americans who budget their expenses based on Social Security — but this year, when that update is coming is unclear.

Typically, the Social Security Administration announces cost of living adjustments in mid-October.

The official COLA increase for 2026 was slated to be announced Oct. 15, but thanks to the government shut down, that announcement may be delayed — leaving millions questioning when that announcement will come and how to budget for the year ahead.

• Read more: FTC stops important services amid government shut down: Why it matters

According to the Social Security Administration, the actual COLA increase is determined by the percentage increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) from July to September of the calendar year.

While we don’t know when those numbers will be officially announced, we do have a pretty good idea of what they might look like based on the calculation the Social Security Administration uses to determine the increase.

Using this calculation, bipartisan group The Senior Citizens League, predicts the increase will be about 2.7%, which is slightly up from 2025’s increase of 2.5%.

From a historical perspective, the predicted 2026 COLA would rank 29th among the COLAs implemented since 1977, which was the first year that the SSA began calculating COLAs based on the CPI-W,” TSCL wrote in a release.

“The last COLA, implemented in 2025, currently ranks 33rd.”

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A 2.7% COLA would pan out to about an extra $54 per month for the average retired worker, increasing monthly from $2,008 to $2,062.

But while the COLA increase is semi-predictable, the government shut down complicates other moving parts essential to keeping the Social Security Administration running smoothly and serving beneficiaries.

Prior to the shutdown, the Social Security Administration created a contingency plan indicating it would retain approximately 45,000 (90%) of its workforce during the shutdown, while furloughing roughly 6,200 employees.

This staffing reduction is expected to halt a variety of services including:

• Benefit verifications
• Earnings record corrections and updates unrelated to the adjudication of benefits
• Payee accountings
• Prisoner activities-suspension
• Requests from third parties for queries
• Freedom of Information Act requests
• IT enhancement activities, public relations and training
• Replacement Medicare cards
• Overpayments processing

However, beneficiaries will continue to be paid on time. Benefit payments are categorized as mandatory spending, CBS News reported. This means their funding was already authorized by Congress with no expiration date.

Recipients of Supplemental Security Income (SSI), a needs-based program that provides monthly payments to people with limited income and resources who are age 65 or older or have a disability, can expect to receive their first payment on Wednesday, Oct. 1, and Friday, Oct. 30.