Where will U.S. farmers sell pork, cotton during trade war?

Overseas sales of U.S. farm commodities are already taking a hit. The latest batch of export data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows that in the week after steep tariffs between the U.S. and China went into effect, sales of U.S. cotton and soybeans were down 50% over the week before. Sales of U.S. pork tanked 72%. 

President Trump has said farmers affected by his trade policies should start selling their crops and livestock here in the U.S. But it’s not that simple. 

Picture, if you will, 12,000 metric tons of U.S.-raised pork. That’s the volume of orders canceled by Chinese customers in the first full week of the president’s trade war.

“Yeah, we gotta find a home for that pork,” said Karl Setzer, a partner at Consus Ag Consulting.

He said China is a key destination for American meat, with no ready international substitutes. 

We can count on U.S. consumers to eat up some of the surplus, he said, “especially ahead of the U.S. grilling season.”

But we can’t snap our fingers and make the whole population grill a rack of ribs every night. Long term, there’s not much room for the domestic market to grow. 

Then there are crops like U.S. cotton — some 85% of which is exported. 

“We’ve developed to supply foreign markets,” said John Robinson, an agricultural economist at Texas A&M. 

He said the infrastructure needed to process cotton into fabric doesn’t really exist here. So American farmers would have to attract new international markets. 

“If there are bales, they’re gonna move. But they’re gonna have to move at lower prices,” Robinson said.

And most farm commodities have a shelf life. 

Peter Friedmann, executive director of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition, said while manufacturers can pause production while they wait for clarity on tariffs, farmers can’t. A soybean crop or a hundred head of cattle?

“They keep producing. They keep growing,” he said.

So if China’s not buying, and domestic markets can’t absorb the surplus, what happens to those crops and livestock? 

“You know? That’s a darn good question,” Friedmann said. It’s one the agriculture sector is trying to figure out in real time. 

But if the U.S. and China don’t reach a deal soon, Friedmann said some crops could be destined for landfills.