Why Donald Trump's radical trade war tactics will test Brexit Britain like never before

Britain must make the best use of Brexit freedoms to protect jobs and rescue growth as trade wars loom.

President Donald Trump has the European Union in his sights.

He has multiple grudges against the bloc, claiming it is “very, very bad to us” and “they’re going to be in for tariffs” because this is the only way “you’re going to get fairness”.

This is coupled with his conviction that European members of NATO have prospered under US military protection but pay nothing like their fair share towards the cost of deterring foes.

Brexiteers who fought to break Britain free from Brussels will feel deep relief the UK is no longer tethered to the bloc. We do not have to negotiate a common response with neighbours with radically different needs and priorities.

When the UK is straining to escape the legacy of the pandemic, the last thing it needs is to be ensnared in a trade war with the US.

At this time, Britain needs to use the agility and freedom it enjoys outside the EU to forge the best possible trading relationship with the US while doing everything we can to strengthen our defence alliances.

The challenges are immense. Trump has a radically different vision for trade from his predecessors.

For decades, presidents and prime ministers have worked to dismantle barriers and remove tariffs. That train has been derailed.

Trump and his allies believe globalisation has been catastrophic for American manufacturing. Just as Britons look at hollowed-out former industrial communities with sorrow, Trump’s supporters want him to revive the Rust Belt as a powerhouse of mass-production.

More than that, the new president wants to use tariffs to pay for giant American tax cuts. His presidency is shaping up to be a radical economic experiment.

This comes as Sir Keir Starmer seeks to remove trading barriers with the EU as part of his “reset”. There will be horror in Brexiteer circles if any agreement he strikes with Brussels makes it harder to negotiate deals with fast-growing economies.

There are clear signs the EU wants to hug Britain tightly. Trade chief Maros Sefcovic says the EU is open to the UK joining a pan-European customs area.

Veteran Brexiteers fear the UK’s independence will be chipped away and we will find ourselves bound in EU red tape. But Brussels now seems less fearful that Brexit will lead to an exodus of other member states.

The war in Ukraine – which coincides with political chaos in major European countries – has reminded leaders across the continent that the UK is vital to the security of Europe.

The decisions Sir Keir will take in the coming months will shape Britain’s economic destiny for years to come.

There is hope in Brexiteer circles that a trade deal with the US is still possible.

Shanker Singham, who chairs the Growth Commission, wants to see the formation of a “core group” of trading allies – including Australia and Japan – who would form an “economic NATO” and help those “particularly exposed to China’s market-distorting practices”.

That optimism is by no means universal. Anand Menon, professor of European politics at King’s College London, says that while the “EU is probably big enough to protect itself from Trump’s tariffs” he is “not convinced the UK is”.

And Sir Keir cannot take US goodwill for granted if he is seen to be trying to straddle the US and EU horses simultaneously.

The anti-Trump comments of senior Labour figures have all been clocked, and a quick look at the guest list at the president’s inauguration signals the new administration has special relationships with insurgent leaders on the Right.

Italian PM Georgia Meloni and Argentine president Javier Milei, who wants to “make Argentina great again”, are political rock stars. Sir Keir and Lord Mandelson, if he makes it to Washington DC as our next ambassador, will have their diplomatic skills tested to the limit as they try to shape Trump’s thinking.

These former opponents of Brexit must now use every hard-won freedom to defend Britain’s national interest. Maybe, deep in their hearts, they might even secretly conclude we are better off out.