Why Newmont (NEM) Is Down 7.0% After Gold’s Largest Daily Drop in a Decade and What’s Next

• Gold experienced its largest one-day loss in over a decade this past week, causing shares of major gold miners such as Newmont to fall as precious metal prices declined sharply from record highs.

• This pronounced volatility highlights gold’s shifting behavior, at times moving more like a risk asset than a traditional safe-haven investment during periods of market uncertainty.

• We’ll assess how this dramatic gold price drop may influence Newmont’s investment narrative, especially its outlook on revenue and earnings stability.

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At its core, investing in Newmont means believing that demand for gold as a store of value will remain resilient and that responsible capital allocation and operational improvements can help offset commodity-driven swings in earnings. The biggest short-term catalyst remains the upcoming earnings report, tightly linked to realized gold prices, while the most pressing risk is revenue sensitivity to volatile gold prices. Despite recent sharp declines in precious metals, the impact on Newmont’s fundamentals is significant chiefly for near-term expectations.

The upcoming Q3 2025 results, to be reported after the close on October 23, directly tie Newmont’s outlook to movements in gold prices and will provide clarity for investors following recent market turbulence. This reporting event is especially pivotal given the pronounced connection between Newmont’s realized prices and its key revenue and earnings figures in the wake of the record one-day gold price drop. In contrast, the upcoming transition to new CEO leadership presents a longer horizon issue rather than an immediate earnings driver.

But while much attention is on gold’s volatility, investors should not overlook the…

Read the full narrative on Newmont (it’s free!)

Newmont’s outlook anticipates $21.6 billion in revenue and $6.4 billion in earnings by 2028. This scenario is based on analysts’ assumptions of 1.6% annual revenue growth and a $0.2 billion increase in earnings from the current $6.2 billion.

Uncover how Newmont’s forecasts yield a $88.91 fair value, in line with its current price.

Eight fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$40.60 to US$96.99 per share, reflecting strong differences in investor outlooks. With gold’s price swings making earnings less predictable, now is a good time to consider a variety of opinions before making a decision.

Explore 8 other fair value estimates on Newmont – why the stock might be worth as much as 11% more than the current price!

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• A great starting point for your Newmont research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.

• Our free Newmont research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual – the Snowflake – making it easy to evaluate Newmont’s overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include NEM.

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