Why NVIDIA Stock Rose 80% In 6 Months?

From a quantitative perspective, the 77.2% change in NVIDIA (NVDA) stock from 4/18/2025 to 10/15/2025 was chiefly motivated by a 48.4% change in the company’s P/E Multiple. While there is more to this narrative than mere numbers, let’s first analyze the stock price movements by examining its contributing elements.

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Returning to the “change”: the alterations in fundamental factors such as valuation, revenues, and profit margins have an underlying narrative regarding business and investor sentiment. Below, we have pinpointed crucial developments that affected the stock price movement for NVDA stock. Before that, as a brief background: NVDA provides graphics, computing, and networking solutions for the gaming, professional visualization, datacenter, and automotive sectors globally, in addition to a strategic partnership with Kroger Co.

Here Is Why NVIDIA Stock Moved

• NVIDIA reported robust Q1 Fiscal 2026 results in late May with revenue amounting to $44.1 billion, representing a 69% increase year-over-year. However, an announcement made on April 9, 2025, regarding new U.S. government export license requirements for H20 products to China resulted in a $4.5 billion charge for excess inventory in Q1 and a projected $8 billion loss in Q2 H20 revenue, leading to investor uncertainty.
• The Data Center segment remained a principal growth engine, contributing $39.1 billion to Q1 revenue, marking a 73% year-over-year increase. The Blackwell GPU architecture, which was unveiled at GTC 2025, was recognized for its remarkable AI processing advancements and robust demand, with production scaling up.
• In late August, NVIDIA announced strong Q2 Fiscal 2026 results with revenue reaching $46.7 billion, a 56% year-over-year increase, alongside a new $60 billion share repurchase authorization. This indicated strong financial performance and capital return, although the stock saw an initial decline post-earnings as Data Center revenue slightly fell short of expectations.
• Escalating US-China trade tensions, including threats of significant new tariffs on Chinese goods around October 10, 2025, adversely affected NVIDIA’s stock. The company’s considerable revenue exposure to the Chinese market for its AI chips rendered it particularly vulnerable to these geopolitical events.
• Analysts broadly upheld positive ratings for NVIDIA, highlighting its leading position in AI infrastructure and the expanding total addressable market for its GPUs, fueled by new partnerships and initiatives. This enduring optimism served as underlying support for the stock during periods of market instability.

Our Current Assessment Of NVDA Stock

Opinion: We currently consider NVDA stock appealing yet volatile. Why is that? Take a look at the complete narrative. Read Buy or Sell NVDA Stock to understand what drives our current view.

Risk: That said, Nvidia isn’t exempt from significant declines. It dropped 68% during the Dot-Com bubble and suffered an even steeper decline of 85% during the Global Financial Crisis. During the inflation shock, it declined approximately 66%, while the corrections in 2018 and the Covid pandemic pulled it down by 56% and 38%, respectively. Even with strong fundamentals, Nvidia’s history indicates it can incur steep losses when market conditions turn.

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