Will I Get My Full Social Security Benefits? Definitely, Maybe

It’s difficult, but try for a moment to imagine what US politics will be like after 2028. President JD Vance or Gavin Newsom or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Dwayne “the Rock” Johnson could have any number of problems to confront, from the economic impact of artificial intelligence to a new international conflict. But there’s one thing the next administration will almost certainly have to deal with: how to pay the full, promised Social Security benefits of every American retiree.

That’s because the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund is expected to run out around 2032—which is not only during the term of the next president but also of every senator who will be elected in November. Social Security payments won’t go away when the fund is tapped out; the program is financed primarily from the payroll taxes of current workers, and that money will keep flowing. But the fund’s exhaustion would, in theory, trigger an immediate, across-the-board benefit cut of about 25%.