Will Intuitive Surgical Stock Rise Ahead Of Earnings?

Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG) is scheduled to announce its earnings on Tuesday, October 21, 2025. We anticipate that the company will report quarterly revenues of approximately $2.5 billion, supported by ongoing growth in procedure volumes and robust demand for its da Vinci surgical systems. Nevertheless, we expect margins to experience slight pressure due to rising component costs and increased R&D expenditures. While recurring instrument and service revenue remains a significant profit contributor, the mix of hardware sales and pricing dynamics may dampen immediate profitability. The growing implementation in general surgery and international markets continues to bolster growth, but sustained margin enhancement will rely on cost leverage and product innovation over the upcoming quarters.

The company currently has a market capitalization of $156 billion. Revenue over the past twelve months was $9.1 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $2.6 billion in operating profits and net income of $2.6 billion. Although much will depend on how the results compare against consensus and expectations, comprehending historical patterns could potentially tilt the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.

There are two approaches to achieving this: either grasp the historical probabilities and position yourself before the earnings announcement, or evaluate the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns following the earnings release and adjust your position accordingly once the results are out. That being said, if you desire upside potential with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an attractive alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and achieved returns exceeding 105% since its inception.

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Intuitive Surgical’s Historical Odds of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Here are some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• Over the past five years, there have been 19 earnings data points recorded, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In conclusion, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 53% of the time.
• Significantly, this percentage rises to 58% if we examine data for the past 3 years instead of 5.
• The median of the 10 positive returns is 9.2%, while the median of the 9 negative returns is -2.4%

Additional information regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is encapsulated along with the statistics in the table belo

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less hazardous strategy (though not advantageous if the correlation is minimal) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair that exhibits the highest correlation, and execute the corresponding trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader may position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Please note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Discover more about Trefis RV strategy that has surpassed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all 3: the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), delivering strong returns for investors. Additionally, if you are interested in upside potential with a smoother experience than an individual stock like Intuitive Surgical, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and registered >105% returns since inception.