Will US stock market perform better than expected this Thanksgiving week? Here’s a 10-year Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq analysis as investors watch AI bubble risks and Fed rate …

US stock market Thanksgiving week: U.S. stock market enters Thanksgiving week with a holiday-shortened schedule and a strong year already in place, as the S&P 500 is up 12.3% in 2025 through Nov. 21 and the Nasdaq Composite is up 15.3%, with total returns slightly higher at 13.6% and 16%. Markets will close on Thursday, Nov. 27, and shut early at 1 p.m. ET on Black Friday.

Investors are asking whether Thanksgiving week typically delivers gains, especially as concerns about a possible AI bubble and uncertainty around a December Federal Reserve rate cut continue to weigh on sentiment.

A review of the past 10 years shows that Thanksgiving week often performs better than its proportional share of annual returns. In 2024 the S&P 500 gained 23.3% and the Nasdaq rose 28.6%, and Thanksgiving week outperformed. In 2023 the S&P 500’s 24.2% yearly gain and the Nasdaq’s 43.4% rise were matched by a stronger-than-expected Thanksgiving stretch.
In 2022 both indexes posted steep losses of 19.4% and 33.1% amid supply-chain disruptions, China lockdowns, surging inflation, Fed tightening, and geopolitical shocks, yet Thanksgiving week still delivered a notable upside surprise.

In 2021, despite a strong year with gains of 26.9% for the S&P 500 and 21.4% for the Nasdaq, Thanksgiving week lagged as late-year volatility signaled the downturn that followed in early 2022. In 2020 the S&P 500 rose 16.3% and the Nasdaq surged 43.6% on pandemic-driven tech demand, and Thanksgiving week again beat expectations.

The pattern continued in 2019, 2017, 2016, and 2015, with Thanksgiving week generally outperforming, except in 2018 when both major indexes ended the year down and the holiday stretch underperformed amid concerns over slowing growth, Fed rate hikes, and U.S.–China trade tensions. The decade-long data shows a consistent trend of relative strength during Thanksgiving week, suggesting seasonal momentum often outweighs broader market anxieties, even in turbulent years.

Is the US stock market strong or weak during Thanksgiving week?

Thanksgiving week is here, and U.S. markets will see a shortened schedule. Markets close on Thursday, Nov. 27, and shut early at 1 p.m. on Black Friday. Investors are heading into the holiday with mixed emotions. AI bubble worries are growing. The Federal Reserve may not deliver a December rate cut. Yet stocks remain positive for the year.

Through Nov. 21, 2025, the S&P 500 is up 12.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite has gained 15.3%. Total returns stand even higher at 13.6% and 16%. Both indexes are outperforming their long-term average of about 10% annually.

But one question always resurfaces: Does the market usually rise, fall, or stay average during Thanksgiving week?

A 10-year review shows a clear pattern. Thanksgiving week typically outperforms the market’s annual trend.

Each year has about 52 trading weeks. So a week that performs “as expected” would contribute roughly 1/52nd of the year’s return.

For example, if the S&P 500 gained 26% in a given year, a Thanksgiving week return near 0.5% would be considered normal.

Thanksgiving week performance:

Below is a clean narrative summary of the 2015–2024 results.

2024: Strong outperformance

The S&P 500 gained 23.3% for the year and the Nasdaq gained 28.6%. Thanksgiving week delivered returns better than their annual averages.

2023: Slight outperformance

The S&P 500 gained 24.2%, and the Nasdaq surged 43.4%. Thanksgiving week beat expectations for the S&P and matched expectations for the Nasdaq.

2022: Big surprise upside

A difficult year with the S&P 500 down 19.4% and the Nasdaq down 33.1%. Thanksgiving week delivered much stronger returns than expected.

Inflation, supply chain failures, COVID-era distortions, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominated the year, but the holiday week still outperformed sharply.

2021: Underperformance despite a strong year

The S&P 500 rose 26.9%, and the Nasdaq gained 21.4%.

Yet Thanksgiving week fell short. Market volatility in late November and December signaled the difficult 2022 that followed.

2020: Strong outperformance

The S&P 500 gained 16.3%, and the Nasdaq jumped 43.6%.

Thanksgiving week dramatically outperformed. Stay-at-home stocks, tech giants, and Nvidia’s 122% surge drove much of the year’s momentum.

2019: Strong outperformance

The S&P 500 gained 28.9%, and the Nasdaq gained 35.2%.

Thanksgiving week again beat expectations.

2018: Sharp underperformance

The S&P 500 fell 6.2%, and the Nasdaq dropped 3.9%.

Thanksgiving week was worse than expected due to Fed tightening, slowing growth, and U.S.-China trade tensions.

2017: Holiday week outperformed

The S&P 500 rose 19.4%, and the Nasdaq gained 28.2%.

Thanksgiving week returns were better than normal.

2016: Significant outperformance

The S&P 500 rose 9.5%, and the Nasdaq gained 7.5%.

Thanksgiving week outperformed sharply.

2015: Average performance

The S&P 500 ended nearly flat at -0.7%, while the Nasdaq gained 5.7%.

Thanksgiving week came in right around expectations.

What does the 10-year trend tell investors?

The pattern is clear. Thanksgiving week typically produces stronger-than-average returns for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.

Outperformance appears in 7 of the past 10 years. Underperformance is rare and tied to years of significant market stress.

There is no single explanation for this trend.

Holiday optimism, lighter trading volumes, fund positioning, and seasonal flows possibly play a role. Yet the data makes one thing clear: historically, Thanksgiving week leans positive.

Whether 2025 follows the trend depends on two big forces—AI bubble fears and the Federal Reserve’s December decision.

If anxiety eases, the market could mirror history and post a holiday-week gain.
(Data source – Fool.com)