XRP ETFs Pull In $1.3B in 50 Days—What the Data Suggests if Flows Reach $5B

In just 50 days since launch, XRP ETFs pulled in $1.3 billion with 43 consecutive trading days of positive inflows—the first and only zero-inflow day occurred on December 26, 2025. That pace ranks XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) among the fastest institutional adoption curves outside Bitcoin.

Institutional capital entered steadily even while XRP’s price fell 50% from its July 2025 peak of $3.56, and the broader crypto markets struggled through December’s volatility. With inflows averaging $27.7 million daily and 746 million XRP now locked in ETF custody, the question becomes structural: What happens to supply, liquidity, and market depth if XRP ETF flows reach $5 billion?

XRP ETF Inflows by Numbers: 746M XRP Locked Across Five Issuers

In 50 days, XRP ETFs absorbed $1.3 billion while locking 746 million XRP—roughly 1.14% of the 65.5 billion circulating supply—with virtually zero redemptions through late December. The pace shows how quickly institutional capital can tighten supply before prices respond. Here’s how issuers performed.

Canary Capital XRPC: First-Mover Advantage

Canary Capital defined the market early. XRPC launched on November 13 and pulled in $250 million on day one. The fund now holds approximately $384 million, roughly 30% of total XRP ETF assets. That share stayed stable despite cheaper competitors entering the market, showing institutions favored liquidity and early access over low fees.

Daily inflows often exceeded $100 million outside headline events, signaling durable allocation rather than event-driven trading. Canary’s book reflects committed institutional demand building positions over weeks.

Grayscale GXRP: Conversion Created Instant Scale

Grayscale’s strength came from existing relationships. Assets from its XRP Trust rolled directly into GXRP at launch, creating instant scale without requiring new capital commitments. The fund now manages more than $220 million, and that capital has proven sticky—investors didn’t rotate out after launch-week excitement faded.

The conversion structure reduced friction for allocators who wanted regulated exposure without operational changes to custody arrangements. GXRP’s steady flows demonstrate how institutional familiarity still matters in ETF adoption, even when competitors offer lower fees.

Franklin Templeton XRPZ: Cost Leadership Strategy

Franklin took a different approach. XRPZ launched with a 0.19% expense ratio—the lowest in the category—and raised over $190 million. Adoption has been measured rather than explosive, which fits its target audience.

As annual portfolio reviews roll through advisory practices in Q1 2026, Franklin’s market share may rise as cost-conscious allocators shift from higher-fee competitors. These quieter flows still contribute meaningfully to tightening available XRP supply, even if they don’t generate daily headline volume.

Bitwise and 21Shares: Broadening the Base

Bitwise attracts active trading desks that rebalance frequently, resulting in uneven but persistent inflows as institutions adjust crypto exposure tactically. 21Shares extends reach through international distribution channels, particularly in Europe where cross-border ETF access matters for multi-jurisdiction allocators.

Extrapolating to the $5 Billion Threshold: Mid-May 2026 at Current Pace

At the current pace, XRP ETF inflows show steady institutional commitment rather than speculative bursts. With roughly $27.7 million entering daily on average over 50 days, assets continue climbing on a predictable trajectory driven by consistent allocation rather than momentum trading.

Maintaining this velocity places the $5 billion milestone approximately 130 days away from current levels, pointing to mid-May 2026. Hitting that threshold would lock an estimated 2.6 billion XRP into ETF custody—representing roughly 4% of the 65.5 billion circulating supply. That’s a fourfold increase from current 1.14% lockup levels.

That accumulation compounds existing supply removal happening outside ETFs. Exchange balances fell dramatically throughout 2025, dropping from approximately 4 billion XRP at year-start to just 1.6-1.7 billion by late December—a 58% decline. While ETFs absorbed 746 million of that withdrawal, the remaining 1.5+ billion XRP moved into private custody wallets, institutional cold storage, and long-term holder addresses, showing accumulation extending well beyond regulated products.

XRP’s supply is fixed at 65.5 billion in circulation, so tokens placed in regulated custody don’t return to active trading unless investors redeem ETF shares. If institutional positions remain in place for quarters rather than weeks, liquidity tightens through structure rather than sentiment, fundamentally reshaping market depth and available float over time regardless of short-term price moves.

What Could Accelerate XRP ETF Inflows Beyond $5 Billion?

ETF inflows rarely move in straight lines. Three forces could push XRP funds past the $5 billion mark faster than the current 130-day projection.

BlackRock XRP ETF Filing Would Shift the Landscape

BlackRock’s absence remains the largest variable in XRP’s ETF growth trajectory. The firm’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) attracted over $40 billion in assets within its first year, demonstrating BlackRock’s unmatched ability to mobilize institutional capital at scale through its Aladdin platform connections and relationships with thousands of wealth advisors. 

The firm tends to wait for regulatory clarity rather than chase first-mover advantage. Once confident in the legal framework, BlackRock moves decisively. A late XRP ETF filing from BlackRock would carry enormous weight with allocators—many institutions wait for BlackRock’s entry as implicit validation. Based on IBIT’s trajectory, a BlackRock XRP ETF could potentially bring $1-2 billion in launch-month inflows alone, compressing timelines dramatically.

Utility Expansion Through RLUSD Creates Sticky Demand

As Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin expands across blockchains and into lending markets—currently at approximately $1.3 billion market cap—XRP gains functional relevance beyond passive custody. RLUSD settlement on XRP Ledger creates organic demand for XRP as a bridge currency and fee-payment mechanism.

Utility-backed flows tend to be stickier than speculative positioning. If RLUSD scales to $5-10 billion and begins facilitating significant cross-border settlement volume through ODL corridors, the narrative around XRP shifts from “crypto asset” to “payments infrastructure token.”

Bitcoin-Led Market Recovery Typically Lifts Altcoin Flows

XRP ETF inflows held remarkably steady despite Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs facing significant outflows during the same November-December period. If Bitcoin reclaims $100,000+ and sustains that level through Q1 2026, ETFs across all crypto assets often see second-wave institutional demand. A healthier macro backdrop could lift daily XRP ETF subscriptions well above the current $27.7 million average.

XRP Price Outlook: Structure Building Before Sentiment Shifts

XRP ETF inflows have fundamentally shifted the conversation from price speculation to structural market changes. Sustained allocations totaling $1.3 billion over 50 days, 746 million XRP locked away from trading circulation, and disciplined institutional behavior through volatile December conditions all point to a market changing quietly beneath range-bound price action.

The path to $5 billion isn’t guaranteed—macro shocks, prolonged underperformance, or capital fragmentation could derail the current trajectory. But the path is measurable and predictable if current conditions hold. At $27.7 million daily, XRP ETFs reach $5 billion by mid-May 2026, locking 4% of circulating supply into regulated custody.

From a technical standpoint, XRP consolidating between $1.85-$2.00 while ETF accumulation continues supports the supply squeeze thesis building over months. A decisive breakout above $2.20 with expanding volume would signal the structural changes are beginning to impact price discovery. 

If $5 billion hits with XRP trading above $2.50, the combination of reduced available float and improving sentiment could accelerate moves toward $3-4 as patient institutional positioning meets returning retail demand.