【US Stock Market Outlook for the Week of 9/21–9/25: A Selective Investment Strategy for 'High-Financial-Strength, AI-Leading Stocks' Amidst Persistent High Interest Rates …

This week, while oil prices have shown signs of stabilizing due to a glimmer of hope despite the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the situation in Iran, the rise in long-term interest rates has accelerated, leading to a market environment that is pricing in additional rate hikes.

Review of Last Week

The US market last week saw a recovery toward the end of the week, despite being tossed about by high interest rates, volatility in oil prices, and the movements of major IT companies.
Here is a look back at the three main topics that shook the market.

The Impact of the 10-Year US Treasury Yield Reaching a 19-Year High

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to nearly 5% at one point (a 19-year high), putting downward pressure on the stock market as a whole due to concerns that high interest burdens would squeeze corporate earnings.
This was particularly a drag on small-to-mid-cap stocks (such as the Russell 2000) and emerging growth stocks that are highly dependent on borrowing.

The Sharp Drop in Oil Prices and Improvement in Weekend Market Sentiment

WTI crude oil futures, which had risen to over $100 per barrel last week, fell to around $92 per barrel by the weekend due to factors such as receding supply concerns.
The stabilization of energy prices eased inflation fears, leading to a rebound in the three major indices (NY Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq) over the weekend.

Resilience of Large-Cap Tech Stocks (AI-Related) and Sharp Rises in Individual Stocks

On Monday, September 21, Meta Platforms (Meta) announced its new AI agent ‘MUSE,’ which, along with other factors, caused data center semiconductor-related stocks (ARM, Intel, AMD, etc.) to surge, driving the rise in the Nasdaq index. Even in an environment of high interest rates, the sense of security in buying ultra-large AI and IT stocks, centered on mega-caps with abundant cash on hand and strong earning power, was demonstrated once again.

Key Earnings and Important Economic Indicators/Events for This Week

This week is a ‘macro-focused week’ where economic indicators that are extremely important for gauging the US employment situation and inflation trends are concentrated. Additionally, many speeches and press conferences by Fed officials are scheduled, so their remarks will also be closely watched.

【Earnings Schedule for Notable Companies】

The earnings announcement from semiconductor giant Micron Technology (MU) will be a key event that could influence the stock prices of the entire tech sector, as it will confirm the sustainability of demand for AI-related memory (such as HBM).

＜今週の主要・注目企業決算＞
9月29日（火）:
🅱️カーニバル、カーマックス
30日（水）:
🅱️コナグラ・ブランズ、ジェイビル
🅰️マイクロン・テクノロジー
10月1日（木）:
🅱️アクセンチュア、マコーミック
🅰️ナイキ https://t.co/2ypok1QNNV

— アメリカ企業リサーチラボ (@US_Research_Lab) September 26, 2026

【Notable Economic Indicators and Events】

• Tuesday, September 29
  JOLTS Job Openings (August)

• Wednesday, September 30
  ADP National Employment Report (September)

• Thursday, October 1
  ISM Manufacturing Index (September)
  Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index / Personal Income and Spending (August)
  The market’s interest is whether inflation is becoming more sticky. The focus will be on whether the year-on-year core PCE can maintain a steady deceleration trend (in the low to mid-3% range).

• Friday, October 2
  US September Employment Report (Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings)
  In the previous month (August), non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, exceeding prior expectations. The biggest focus is whether the September data released this week will slow down in reaction to that, or if the strength of the labor market will continue.

The PCE Price Index and the employment report are the most critical pieces of information that will directly influence the Fed’s monetary policy (interest rate decisions) at the next FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting to be held on October 27–28, so they are receiving particular attention.

The most notable theme for this week: ‘Corporate selection in an environment of prolonged high interest rates’

The most important theme to watch this week is ‘the selection of companies with strong balance sheets (financial health) in a period of persistently high interest rates.’

In an environment where long-term interest rates remain at a relatively high level of 4% to 5%, small-to-medium enterprises and growth companies that rely heavily on debt, additional financing, or corporate bond issuance will see their net profits squeezed by increased interest payment costs.

On the other hand, companies with the following characteristics will maintain a competitive advantage:

• Large-cap stocks with abundant cash on hand (free cash flow):
  Capable of continuing capital investment in AI and new businesses using their own funds without relying on external financing.

• High return on equity and interest coverage ratio:
  Because they can easily cover interest payments from profits, they are less susceptible to the damage caused by rising interest rates.

In the stock market, rather than a uniform reaction of ‘rising interest rates = selling tech stocks,’ it is expected that a polarization (selective investment) trend will become more pronounced, with capital concentrating on mega-cap stocks, including the Magnificent Seven, which have solid financial foundations.

Advice and points of caution for Japanese investors

In the current phase where interest rate hikes and yen depreciation pressures are intensifying, what should individual Japanese investors be careful about to protect and grow their assets? I offer three points of advice from the perspective of a financial planner.

1. Consideration for currency risk (dollar appreciation/yen depreciation) and avoiding lump-sum investment

The persistence of high US interest rates leads to the maintenance of the interest rate gap between Japan and the US, creating a phase where dollar appreciation and yen depreciation pressures are likely to occur in the foreign exchange market.

With the yen already at a depreciated level, when investing in US stocks via the new NISA or other accounts, avoid lump-sum purchases and thoroughly implement ‘dollar-cost averaging’ to smooth out purchase prices and currency risk.

2. Curbing excessive investment in leveraged products and highly indebted companies

In a rising interest rate environment, the volatility (price fluctuation range) of leveraged ETFs and small-to-mid-cap stocks with high debt becomes extremely large.

It is wise to keep the core of your portfolio in super-large blue-chip stocks or S&P 500 index funds that generate stable cash flow, and to limit the ratio of high-risk assets to about 5–10% of the total portfolio.

3. Do not be swayed by short-term volatility around the employment statistics release

Around the release of the PCE price index on October 1st and the employment statistics on the 2nd, short-term stock price fluctuations are expected due to the gap between market expectations and the results.
Even if you encounter such a situation, the important thing is ‘not to panic sell due to short-term market noise’.

• ‘Persistent inflation + strong employment’ scenario:
  Temporary selling pressure on tech stocks like the Nasdaq due to persistently high interest rates.

• ‘Inflation settling + moderate employment’ scenario (Goldilocks):
  The most comfortable bull market scenario for the stock market as a whole.

It is safer to wait until the beginning of the week to make decisions after confirming how the market has digested the numbers over the weekend.

Reconfirm your investment objectives (such as retirement funds or education savings) and your investment horizon (long-term investment of 10 to 20 years), and continue to manage your portfolio with discipline.