In 10 Years, Will You Wish You'd Bought Ford Stock Right Now?

Ford Motor Company (F 0.78%) has been uncharacteristically rewarding its investors. Since the start of 2025, the Detroit car manufacturer’s share price has climbed 43% (as of June 26). The market has clearly been pleased with the company’s recent financial results, as profit figures have exceeded analyst estimates in four of the past five quarters.

Long-term investors are getting interested in Ford. In 10 years, will you wish you’d bought this automotive stock right now?

Don’t look in the rearview mirror

If you’re investing in the stock market, the common saying is that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. This is a good mental model to have. However, investors can still look at history to understand what might happen.

Doing so will lead to a pessimistic view of Ford, whose shares have generated a total return of 91% in the past decade. Investors would have fared significantly better had they owned an exchange-traded fund that tracked the S&P 500 index.

Between 2015 and 2025, Ford’s total revenue increased at a compound annual rate of 2.1%. And its diluted earnings per share rose by a yearly clip of 1.1%. This isn’t making anyone bullish. Because the mass-market auto industry is mature, intensely competitive, cyclical, and capital-intensive, investors will struggle to put money to work here.

Trying to hit the gas pedal

Ford is positioning itself for a more successful future. For instance, it’s prioritizing light trucks and vans, leaning into where the demand is. “This approach prioritizes affordability, choice, and profits,” the December 2025 press release reads.

The company completely restructured its electric vehicle segment, taking a $19.5 billion write-off in the process, as it aims to introduce affordable models. By 2030, Ford aims to achieve a 50% global volume split between hybrids, electric vehicles (EVs), and extended-range EVs, up from 17% in 2025.

Seeing the increased need for electricity amid the artificial intelligence boom, the company recently launched Ford Energy, leveraging its existing infrastructure. This segment will start shipping battery systems to utilities, data centers, and industrial and commercial customers in late 2027. It could contribute to Ford’s bottom line.

Despite these encouraging moves, warranty costs could continue to plague the company. And there’s the constant threat of future demands from labor unions that pressure the already-thin margin profile.

Investors might believe that Ford is in the early stages of an operational upgrade, as it tightens its product focus and aims to drive efficiencies. However, I remain bearish given the cyclical and capital-intensive nature of the automotive industry. This reality overrides the stock’s cheap forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5 and high dividend yield of 4.25%.

Imagine it’s late June 2036. And you decide to check your portfolio. I think there’s a very low probability that you’d regret not buying Ford stock today.