Trump’s Iran strikes fit a surprising 2026 pattern: Here’s what the stock-market data shows.
An earlier version of this article misspelled Ryan Detrick’s last name. It has been corrected.
It’s been called the “Axios put.”
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Stocks closed up sharply Monday, following a slump headed into the weekend, after President Donald Trump reassured Wall Street that the U.S. and Iran were ready for fresh peace talks following weekend retaliatory airstrikes over the Strait of Hormuz.
It’s also simply been called the White House’s preferred playbook in the first half of 2026: helping markets rally after a weekend of U.S. military action — or the threat of force — in another country.
It started in early January with the swift capture of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro on a Saturday, and pivoted eight weeks later to another Saturday U.S.-Israeli attack against Iran.
“This past weekend is a perfect example of the latest types of flare-ups,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group. “As soon as Friday evening rolled around, the fighting picked up, but by Sunday night and futures opening, things had calmed down.”
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA marked a new record on Monday, closing above 52,000 for the first time. The S&P 500 index SPX gained 1.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP finished 2.1% higher, both snapping five-session skids, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
In late April, Trump praised the resilience of the S&P 500 and the Dow during an interview with CNBC, saying he expected oil to surge to $200 a barrel and the stock market to plunge 20% after his administration “did a little thing” and attacked Iran.
Instead, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both poised to log their best first-half of a year since 2024, up 8.7% and 11.1%, respectively, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Several of the big market moves of 2026 followed Axios news reports about U.S. escalation or de-escalation plans for the Iran war, which is where the “Axios put” term comes from.
U.S. regulators and several elected officials have been monitoring suspicious activity in global oil futures that began since the start of the conflict with Iran.
When asked for comment, a White House spokesperson said “the real trend” was stock indexes rising due to Trump’s policies.
Related: Traders point to suspicious activity in the oil market on Wednesday
More broadly, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq performed notably better on average on Mondays in the second quarter of this year, versus the average Mondays of the past decade, as the below Dow Jones Market Data chart shows.
The action in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Fridays was less differentiated when comparing the two periods, but global Brent crude prices were generally lower on Fridays in the second quarter and higher on Mondays.
It also shows anyone selling stocks or crude into weakness going into the weekend might regret it by Monday, at least over the past three months.
Trump announced the recent U.S.-Iran peace agreement on social media late on a Sunday in mid-June, sending stock futures sharply higher and U.S. crude prices CL00 down to about $80 a barrel. He indicated the preliminary deal was necessary to avoid a market crash similar to the one in 1929.
But with U.S. crude and global Brent prices BRN00 around $70 a barrel, closer to prewar levels, the focus in markets has moved beyond oil and the Strait of Hormuz.
“The stock market doesn’t care anymore,” said Chris Galipeau, head market strategist at the Franklin Templeton Institute, about the plunge in oil prices and headline fatigue around progress toward a lasting peace deal.
Instead, investors are watching volatility sweep up semiconductor stocks, the new tech leaders of the bull market, as well as the beneficiaries of the “Magnificent Seven” hyperscalers spending behind the artificial-intelligence buildout.
“You’ve seen the pendulum swing like crazy,” Galipeau said, adding that the time to buy chip stocks was eight months ago.
Mike DeStefano contributed