The “Three Blanks” Common to Those Who Can't Win at Swing Trading
“Swing trading can’t win”
You searched for that and ended up here.
That means, I think you’ve already started. You’ve read books, looked at charts, and actually put money in.
And yet, it doesn’t grow.
——First, I will say the most important thing.
It is probably not a problem with your strategy.
I’m sorry if this isn’t the answer you were expecting.
But after doing this for eight years, I can say this much.
What people who can’t win are missing is not a new strategy.
And——Deep down, haven’t you already realized it?
“It’s probably not a problem with the method.”
However, if you admit that, it becomes your own fault, so you end up looking for another strategy. I was the same way.
But it is not your fault.
I want to emphasize this strongly.
Look at the world.
Information on entries is overflowing.
“Buy when this pattern appears,” “Golden cross,” “When volume surges”——books, YouTube, and social media are almost all about the timing of buying.
On the other hand,
information on “where to cut,” “how to record,” and “how to review” is surprisingly scarce.
Because it’s not interesting. No one watches it, and it doesn’t go viral.
That is why, the more seriously people study, the more their knowledge becomes skewed toward entry. And with the exit remaining a blank, only their money decreases.
This is not a problem of ability. It is a problem of information imbalance.
In this article, we will look specifically at where those “blanks” are.
Chapter 1 | The True Identity of “Not Winning” Is Three Blanks
Trading decisions are broadly divided into four categories.
What to decide | Amount of information in the world | (1) Direction: Is it a market worth buying now? | Normal | (2) Timing: At what moment to enter? Very high | (3) Withdrawal: Where to cut and where to take profit? Low | (4) Verification: Can you record it and apply it next time? Almost none
For most people who cannot win, only (2) is filled.
And (3) and (4) remain blank.
Blank (1) | Withdrawal is not decided
Even for those who say, “I do cut my losses,” please check one more thing.
Did you decide on that stop-loss line *before* you pressed the entry button?
If you decided it after buying, that is not a stop-loss rule. It is just your mood at the time.
The moment people buy, they all think it will “go up.” If you think about the exit in that state, it will inevitably be lenient.
Blank (2) | Not looking at whether you “stuck to it”
Even if you decide on a stop-loss line, it is meaningless if you do not stick to it.
In the last five times, did you cut as you decided?
If there was even one time where you said “just this once,” that is where the blank is.
Blank (3) | No records
This is the biggest one, but it is the most neglected.
Without records, you do not know what went wrong even if you lose. Because you do not know, you cannot improve. Because you cannot improve, you do the same thing again.
Even though they are going around in the same place, they feel like they are “working hard.” This is the most exhausting state to be in.
Chapter 2 | There are two types of losses
This is the most important thing I want to convey in this article.
Even if the “loss” is the same, the content is completely different.
Lost while following rules Lost while breaking rules Cause The market didn’t move that way I wavered What remains Data Nothing remains Impact on the next step One more piece of verification material is added Trust in yourself is eroded How it lingers Doesn’t linger much Lingers for a long time
If you lost while following the rules, that is not a failure.
“The conditions were met. But the market didn’t move that way.”
——If this is the case, you can move on to the next step. It’s just one more piece of data.
Since there is no strategy that wins 100% of the time, you will inevitably lose while following the rules. That is within expectations.
The problem is when you lose while breaking the rules.
“I was supposed to pass on this, but I entered anyway.” “I was supposed to cut my losses, but I didn’t.”
When these pile up, you stop trusting your own judgment.
And then in the next trade, you hesitate again. Because you hesitate, you break the rules again.
People who cannot win do not distinguish between these two.
That is why every loss weighs on them with the same intensity.
And they head toward the conclusion that “this isn’t for me.”
But in reality, you don’t need to count the losses you incurred while following the rules.
Chapter 3 | The reason I couldn’t win
I, too, was in the same place for a long time.
Look at the RSI. Look at the moving average. Look for a golden cross. And then buy because “it looks like it’s about to go up.”
At first, you might win. Then you start thinking, “Maybe I can actually do this.”
But when the price dropped, a problem arose.
“It might bounce back.” “If I sell now, it might be the bottom.” “Let’s wait a little longer.”
I was deciding on stop-losses on the spot.
[Fact check required] That’s how I lost 30% of my capital in six months.
What hurt the most wasn’t the amount of money.
It was that there was a different version of me every time..
Even in similar situations, one day I would hold on thinking “it’s still good,” and another day I would panic-sell thinking “it’s hopeless.” Looking back, both were wrong.
And, I couldn’t even explain to myself why I made those decisions.
Red numbers every time I looked at the chart. I worried about stock prices even at night. The first thing I did when I woke up was check the stock price.
[Fact check required] I was thinking about charts in my head while talking to my family.—the moment I realized that was the hardest part.
I wrote about this in detail in this article. → Should you quit swing trading? People who should quit vs. people who can continue
Chapter 4 | “Wrong Improvements” That Losing Traders Often Make
This might be the most useful part of this article.
When people can’t win, they try to improve. Sometimes that effort has the opposite effect.
Mistake ① | Increasing the number of strategies
This is the most common pattern.
Last week it was MA, this week it’s MACD, next week it’s a strategy someone introduced.
Your knowledge increases. But so does your confusion.
Because a new kind of confusion is born: “Which strategy should I use to judge this time?” And because you do it differently every time, verification is impossible.
Mistake 2 | Lowering the lot size
“I’m scared, so I’ll make the amount smaller.”
It looks safe, but there is a pitfall. If the amount is too small, you won’t make decisions seriously.
You enter sloppily thinking “it’s small anyway,” and exit sloppily. That doesn’t count as practice.
The appropriate amount is an amount that won’t affect your life if you lose, but isn’t small enough to treat carelessly.
Mistake 3 | Increasing the amount of study
Studying is important. However, the problem is what you study.
As I wrote at the beginning, information in the world is biased toward entries.
If someone who already has enough knowledge of entries studies entries even more, the blank will not be filled. It will only increase the bias.
Mistake 4 | Looking for someone who is winning
“Maybe I can win if I use that person’s method.”
If you keep changing people like that, your own decision-making axis will never develop.
And the moment that person goes silent, you won’t be able to do anything.
Chapter 5 | What to do before “increasing win rate”
I think many people are thinking, “I want to increase my win rate.”
But win rate and profit/loss are different stories.
Even if the win rate is high, if a single loss is large, the total will sink. Conversely, even if you miss often, if you can keep losses small, the story changes.
In other words,
What you should work on first is “making a single loss small.”
And this is a job of exiting, not entering.
Trying to raise your win rate, only to go back to studying entries again—this cycle is often the reason you can’t break through.
“I understand it, but I can’t actually do it.”
Having read this far,
“I understand that, but I can’t actually do it once I’m holding the stock…”
If that’s what you thought,
I was the same way.
It wasn’t that you lacked knowledge.You just didn’t have a system that allowed you to act without having to think every single time.
Find out where your blank is in 3 minutes
Even if you say “I can’t win” in a single word,where the blank is differs from person to person.
Is your entry criteria vague? Have you not decided on an exit? Have you decided, but can’t stick to it? Can’t you improve because you have no records?
If the cause is different, what you need to do next is also different.
So, I created a checklist that lets you find your own blank just by answering 9 questions.
👉 Receive the pattern checklist via LINE (free)
After registering, please send “Pattern Checklist” to the chat screen. It will arrive immediately.
Chapter 6 | From today, just one thing
Please don’t try to fix everything at once.It won’t last.
If you choose just one thing, it’s this.
Decide on a stop-loss line before pressing the entry button.
There are 3 reasons for this.
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You can do it from today—no new knowledge required
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The most effective part—Keeping a single loss small is the job of exiting.
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Others will follow—Once the exit is decided, the conditions for entry naturally become stricter.
And, please record whether or not you kept to the line you decided. It is not about winning or losing; just marking it with a circle or an X is enough.
Once you do this, you will be able to distinguish between ‘losing while following the rules’ and ‘losing while breaking them.’
That is where the real start begins.
I have summarized the details on how to create your own model here. → [Complete Edition] The Ultimate Swing Trading Model
Chapter 7 | Frequently Asked Questions
Q. How long does it take to see results?
I cannot say ‘you will win in X months.’ Market conditions vary, and everyone’s experience is different.
However, please think of the first 2 to 3 months as a period to look at ‘whether you followed the rules’ rather than ‘profit and loss.’
If you only look at profit and loss here, you will usually quit halfway through.
Q. Should I quit during periods when I can’t win?
If you are losing while following the rules, that is a normal period.
However, if you are losing while breaking the rules, you should stop for a moment. It is possible that the amount you are trading is too large.
Q. What should I write in my records?
Just four things are enough.
‘Stock name’, ‘Reason for entry (which conditions were met)’, ‘Reason for exit’, ‘Did you follow the rules? O/X’
You don’t need to write your impressions. The O/X is the most important part.
Q. What strategy should I use?
To be honest, I think anything is fine.
What is important is not the type of method, but deciding on one and repeating only that.
If you use a different approach every time, you cannot verify even the best of methods.
Final Chapter | Please do not blame yourself for not winning
Thank you for reading this long article.
Finally, please let me say just this.
The reason you cannot win is not because you are not trying hard enough.
In fact, it is the opposite; the harder you try, the more you get stuck.
Studying diligently, gathering information, and trying new methods—that effort is simply being directed in a biased direction.
Since the world is full of information about entries, it is only natural that this happens.
What was needed was not to study more.
What was needed was
“If this happens, I will do this”
—just one single criterion for judgment.
And, recording whether or not you followed it.
It is not flashy. Honestly, it is boring.
But, I stopped being afraid to open my account. For me, this was the biggest change.
What you should aim for is not to be someone who can predict the market.
There is no need to become someone who can read the market perfectly.
Someone who can decide for themselves, “What should I do in this situation?”
As you get closer to that, the way you view winning and losing will change.
🎁 First, why not take a look at your own blanks?
It starts by changing “I can’t win” into “where is the blank?”
Once you know the cause, you can narrow down what to do next to just one thing.
[Swing Trading Pattern Checklist] (PDF, 4 pages total)
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✓ Just answer 9 questions. Takes 3 minutes
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✓ You will understand where the blank is in terms of direction, timing, exit, and verification
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✓ For each type of blank, I have written down what you should decide next
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✓ Fill-in format. Diagnose yourself again in 3 months to check your progress
📩 Receive the pattern checklist via LINE (Free)
▼ How to receive (1) Register on LINE via the link above (2) Send “Pattern Checklist” in the chat screen (3) You will receive the PDF immediately
Even if you have many NOs, please don’t feel discouraged.
The moment you “see” the blank, you are already moving forward. It is most dangerous when you cannot see it.
On LINE, I deliver information on how to read charts, how to build patterns, and how to maintain distance from the market, from the perspective of **”In the end, what should I do?”**
Registration is free. You can block it at any time if you no longer need it.
*This article is intended for learning and providing reference information for trading, and does not recommend any specific stocks or investments. The content described is an example and does not guarantee future investment results. Stock investment involves risks such as price fluctuations, and there is a possibility that the principal investment may be lost. Please make investment decisions at your own discretion and responsibility.